Peace hopes cool as both Russian and U.S. presidents opt out of direct negotiations in Istanbul, undercutting momentum before talks even begin.
After all the talk, Vladimir Putin won’t be showing up.
Just four days after proposing face-to-face negotiations with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, the Russian president has backed away from the Istanbul peace summit, scheduled to begin Thursday. It would have marked their first direct contact since Russia launched its invasion in February 2022.
Kremlin Changes Course at the Last Minute
On May 11, Putin made headlines when he unexpectedly offered direct talks “without any preconditions.” It was the clearest signal yet of potential movement in a war that’s stretched on for more than three years.
That optimism didn’t last long.
By late Wednesday, the Kremlin abruptly confirmed that Putin would not attend. Instead, presidential adviser Vladimir Medinsky and Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin will represent Moscow in Turkey.
And they won’t be alone. Kremlin aide Yury Ushakov confirmed talks would still begin Thursday and focus on both political and technical issues. But the vibe? Already deflated.
One sentence, one impact: Putin’s absence means less pressure, less urgency, less chance of breakthrough.
The U.S. Isn’t Sending Trump Either
The shift in tone didn’t end in Moscow. Washington followed suit, confirming President Donald Trump won’t be at the table either.
The White House, which had remained tight-lipped on the summit earlier this week, now says Trump will “monitor developments” from afar. A senior official described the event as “a regional track” rather than a top-tier negotiation.
That’s diplomatic speak for: we’re not betting on a breakthrough.
With neither the Russian nor American presidents in the room, the Istanbul summit now feels more symbolic than strategic. Analysts were quick to recalibrate expectations.
So, Who Is Showing Up?
Here’s a look at who’s expected in Istanbul — and what they’re expected to bring:
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Russia: Vladimir Medinsky (Presidential Adviser), Alexander Fomin (Deputy Defense Minister)
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Ukraine: Senior officials from Zelenskyy’s administration; no confirmation on the president’s attendance
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Turkey: President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan will host the talks and mediate sessions
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Observers: EU diplomats, possibly some U.N. representation; U.S. and China will be monitoring remotely
The absence of heads of state has already reshaped the tone of the summit. It’s less about crafting peace, more about keeping the channel open.
What’s Actually on the Table?
While exact agendas remain vague, officials suggest the talks will tackle two broad themes: frontline ceasefire arrangements and humanitarian corridors. There’s also chatter about prisoner exchanges and food export guarantees.
But without political heavyweights at the table, no one’s expecting dramatic shifts.
Here’s a simple breakdown:
| Issue Area | What Might Be Discussed | Likelihood of Agreement |
|---|---|---|
| Ceasefire Zones | Temporary pauses in contested regions | Medium |
| Prisoner Exchanges | Agreement on mutual repatriation | High |
| Territorial Status | Borders and annexed territories | Low |
| Humanitarian Corridors | Safe passages for civilians and aid | Medium |
| Sanctions Relief | Partial rollback tied to de-escalation | Very Low |
So yes, some progress may happen — just not the headline-making kind.
Why Now, and Why Turkey?
The decision to hold talks in Istanbul wasn’t random.
Turkey has positioned itself as one of the few major players with working relationships on both sides of the war. Erdoğan’s government has hosted previous rounds of peace talks, most notably in 2022 when both delegations met in Istanbul and Antalya.
One sentence here says it all: Turkey wants to be the middleman — again.
But the political math has changed since then. Backchannel lines have narrowed. Frontline conditions have hardened. And internationally? The war fatigue is real.
What This Means for the War’s Trajectory
This isn’t a turning point — it’s a temperature check.
The fact that Putin initiated the offer and then backed off suggests either internal disagreements or second thoughts. Some analysts believe it may be a tactical move: gauge Kyiv’s response, shift blame, or simply stall.
For Zelenskyy, showing up without Putin in the room puts him in a tough spot. Appear too eager, and he risks looking weak. Don’t show at all, and he hands Moscow a diplomatic win.
Meanwhile, military analysts say the fighting continues unabated in Donetsk and Kherson. No major breakthroughs there, either.
