India’s power sector saw a rare drop in carbon dioxide emissions, falling 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, according to a new study. This marks only the second such decline in nearly 50 years, driven by a boom in renewable energy and milder weather that cut fossil fuel use.
Key Findings from the Study
The analysis comes from experts at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. They reviewed official data and found emissions totaled about 724 million tonnes in the first half of 2025. This drop happened outside of pandemic years, showing real progress in India’s energy shift.
Over the past 12 months, emissions dipped by 0.2%. The power sector, which makes up over half of India’s total emissions, could peak before 2030 if trends continue. Clean energy additions hit a record 25.1 gigawatts in the same period, up 69% from 2024.
India’s growing population and economy have pushed energy demand higher. Yet, this emissions fall signals that renewable sources are starting to offset coal and gas reliance.
Renewable Energy Boom Drives Change
Solar power led the charge with 14.3 gigawatts from large-scale projects and 3.2 gigawatts from rooftops. Wind and other renewables also grew, helping non-fossil fuels reach 50% of installed capacity by mid-2025. This milestone came five years early, beating targets set under global climate agreements.
Total installed capacity now stands at around 485 gigawatts, with non-fossil sources at 243 gigawatts. Experts expect another 16 to 17 gigawatts of solar and wind by year-end.
This surge ties into India’s goal of 500 gigawatts of renewables by 2030. Recent events, like new policies for green hydrogen and electric vehicle charging, support this push.
| Energy Source | Installed Capacity (GW, as of June 2025) | Share of Total (%) |
|---|---|---|
| Coal and Lignite | 223 | 46 |
| Solar | 123 | 25 |
| Wind | 53 | 11 |
| Hydro (Large) | 50 | 10 |
| Gas | 20 | 4 |
| Nuclear | 9 | 2 |
| Others (Biomass, Small Hydro) | 17 | 2 |
Factors Behind the Emissions Decline
Mild weather played a role, with cooler and wetter conditions reducing power demand for cooling. Fossil fuel generation fell 4%, or about 30 terawatt-hours, as renewables filled the gap.
Coal still dominates at 71% of electricity mix, but hydropower and solar rose to 9% and 8%. Battery storage from recycled electric vehicle batteries helps stabilize the grid.
India’s grid connects to neighbors like Bhutan and plans links to Sri Lanka. This allows cleaner energy imports, cutting emissions further.
Government moves, such as subsidies for solar panels, boosted rooftop installations. Private firms are investing heavily, drawn by falling costs. Solar panel prices dropped, making it cheaper than new coal plants in many areas.
Future Outlook and Potential Peaks
Projections show emissions could peak by 2028 if clean energy grows at current rates. By 2050, scenarios range from net-zero under ambitious policies to slower declines if bottlenecks persist.
One model predicts grid carbon intensity falling to under 300 grams of CO2 per kilowatt-hour by 2030. This would make electricity cleaner than direct fossil fuel use for transport and industry.
Recent global talks, like those at COP30, highlight India’s role. As the world’s most populous nation, its actions influence global warming limits.
Challenges include grid upgrades and storage needs. Yet, innovations like wireless charging for electric vehicles show promise.
Global Impact and India’s Role
India contributed nearly 40% of the global rise in energy emissions since 2019. This turnaround offers hope for keeping warming below 2 degrees Celsius.
Compared to other nations, India’s per capita emissions remain low. But absolute levels matter for climate goals. Ties with countries like Singapore for undersea power links could export clean energy.
Experts note that sustained investment is key. Policies favoring renewables over new coal plants will decide the pace.
Challenges and Next Steps
Not everything is smooth. Coal plants still run at high capacity, and demand could spike with economic growth. Rural areas need better access to clean power.
Financing remains an issue, though international funds are increasing. India aims to triple renewable capacity by 2030, but land and transmission hurdles loom.
To stay on track, experts suggest faster battery deployment and smarter grids. Public awareness campaigns can boost rooftop solar adoption.
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