Support holds at 23,300, but traders eye tariff tremors and Fed signals before placing bold bets.
The morning doesn’t look too rosy for Indian equities. GIFT Nifty slipped by 140 points before market open, hinting at a rough start for Dalal Street. Cues from Wall Street and Asian markets aren’t helping either. With fears of fresh tariffs and hawkish tones from the Fed, traders are stepping into Thursday with caution firmly switched on.
Support at 23,300 is now under scrutiny. If that level cracks, it could get messier before it gets better. Meanwhile, optimism from the India-US trade pact is offering some hope—but just barely.
GIFT Nifty Points to a Nervous Start
The GIFT Nifty, often a crystal ball for how the Indian market might behave, was down 140 points, or 0.6%, trading at 23,329 on Thursday morning.
US stocks tanked on Wednesday. Nvidia’s export drama and Jerome Powell’s sober comments have traders rethinking their optimism.
Powell wasn’t vague. He warned that increased tariffs could cool down growth and push inflation higher. That sent a ripple through global markets, dragging the Dow down 1.7%, the S&P 500 down 2.2%, and the Nasdaq down a sharp 3.1%.
India’s market is walking into the day carrying that baggage.
What’s Keeping the Sentiment Afloat?
Despite the gloomy global setup, India’s markets showed some backbone on Wednesday.
Analysts attribute that to one thing: progress in the India-US Bilateral Trade Agreement. It’s not a done deal, but the “terms of reference” have been signed. That’s enough for now.
Siddhartha Khemka from Motilal Oswal put it simply: “Positive momentum is likely to continue on the back of trade talks, even if global cues remain mixed.”
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A decisive fall below 23,300 could see Nifty sliding to 23,150 or even 23,000
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On the upside, resistance is visible at 23,650
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India VIX dropped 1.6% to 15.86, but it may spike if global volatility spills over
The short takeaway? Traders are hopeful—but they’re definitely not relaxed.
US-China Tensions, Fed Talk Spark Global Volatility
Markets across Asia picked up the negativity from the U.S.
Hang Seng futures fell 1%. S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.3%. S&P 500 futures were flat, but fragile.
Jerome Powell’s comments didn’t hold back. He noted the Fed is seeing signs of slowing growth and won’t rush interest rate decisions without more data. But markets didn’t like the mention of larger-than-expected tariffs one bit.
Then there’s Nvidia. The chip giant warned that U.S. curbs on exports to China could hit their business hard. That hit tech stocks like a freight train.
Two sentences, one impact: the world economy could slow down, and tech might suffer in the crossfire.
Commodities Tell Their Own Story
Safe havens are back in fashion. Gold extended its rally, climbing as investors scrambled for shelter from the global storm.
Sanctions on Iran and OPEC’s promise to reduce output are stoking concerns about tightening supply. The gains weren’t enormous, but they reflect broader anxiety.
Here’s a quick view of where commodities stood on Thursday morning:
| Commodity | Trend | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | Rallying | Safe-haven demand amid trade tensions |
| Crude Oil | Gaining | U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC+ production cuts |
| US Dollar | Mixed | Four-week downtrend, slight rebound vs yen amid US-Japan trade talks |
Markets don’t always move in straight lines. But when gold and oil both go up, that usually says something loud and clear—investors are bracing for trouble.
F&O Ban List, Rupee Watch, and Institutional Moves
The F&O ban list today includes some familiar names.
You’ve got:
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BirlaSoft
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Hindustan Copper
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Manappuram
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Nalco
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IREDA
These stocks have crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit, and that means limited speculative play for now.
Meanwhile, the rupee quietly held its ground. It gained 12 paise, closing at 85.68 against the dollar. That’s the third straight day of gains, fueled by foreign capital inflows and a softer greenback.
And speaking of foreign money—FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors) turned net buyers, pumping in ₹3,936 crore. DIIs chipped in too with ₹2,513 crore.
One-liner? The domestic mood is better than what GIFT Nifty might make it seem.
What’s the Setup For Today?
Let’s wrap it up clearly. Today’s market hinges on three things:
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Whether support at 23,300 holds firm
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What the early global cues evolve into as European markets open
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How investors digest Powell’s comments and Nvidia’s caution
There’s some breathing room above 23,300. But not much.
A dip below that? That’s where the dominoes might start to fall.
Resistance at 23,650 is visible, but breaking it will require real buying strength—something that might be hard to summon unless the global dust settles a bit.
