Amidst global economic shifts, Georgia’s economy stands at a critical juncture. Let’s explore the key developments and prospects for the nation.
Economic Outlook
Georgia’s economic forecast for 2024 indicates a soft landing rather than a recession. While the probability of a recession remains at 33%, the country’s resilience and recent successes play a crucial role. Here are the highlights:
GDP Growth: In 2024, Georgia’s GDP is projected to grow by 1.1%, a modest figure compared to the 3% growth observed this year. However, this still outpaces the sluggish national growth rate predicted at 0.8%.
Labor Market Resilience: The labor market remains robust, contributing to sustained economic expansion. Despite global challenges, Georgia’s workforce continues to demonstrate resilience.
Inflation: Inflation is expected to ease, although it won’t return to pre-pandemic levels. The Federal Reserve’s actions and energy-price shocks pose potential risks, but the overall trajectory remains positive.
Fiscal Stability and Institutional Framework
Georgia’s fiscal stability is a cornerstone of its economic outlook. The country’s strong institutional framework, coupled with prudent fiscal management, ensures a low level of debt. This stability provides a solid foundation for future growth.
Moody’s Assessment
Moody’s predicts a 5.5% economic growth rate for Georgia in 2024, maintaining the country’s rating at Ba2. The improved outlook reflects Georgia’s reduced vulnerability to geopolitical risks and its strengths in economic growth, institutional stability, and low inflation.
Navigating 2024
Navigating the economic landscape in 2024 requires strategic planning. External inflows, investments, and sector-specific developments will shape Georgia’s trajectory. We anticipate a 5.4% growth rate, with potential for even higher expansion.
