Eyes on Q1 Earnings, Global Cues, and U.S. Fed’s Next Move
Indian stock markets are opening the week on cautious footing, with investors juggling a potent mix of earnings announcements, global uncertainty, and domestic technical pressure points. The benchmark Nifty 50, which ended last week at 24,837, is now teetering just above its critical support zone of 24,600–24,550. A slide below that level could unravel further losses toward 24,200, while resistance looms at the 25,100–25,150 mark.
Banking, healthcare, and mid-cap stocks are also expected to see sharper moves this week as a flurry of Q1 results, macro data, and the expiry of July derivatives contracts converge to shape near-term sentiment.
Support Cracks Beneath Nifty as Bulls Grow Cautious
For traders scanning the charts this Monday, the near-term trade setup doesn’t offer much comfort. According to Sudeep Shah, VP and Head of Technical and Derivative Research at SBI Securities, “Nifty’s immediate support is parked at 24,600–24,550. If this zone is breached decisively, we’re staring at a potential drop toward 24,200.”
The situation is no brighter for Bank Nifty, which has been struggling to break past the 57,300–57,400 resistance band. Even though Bank Nifty managed to end last week marginally higher at 56,528.90, there’s a visible lack of bullish conviction.
A quick look at sectoral movement:
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Healthcare emerged as the week’s surprise gainer.
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FMCG, Realty, and IT stocks saw steady declines.
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Mid- and small-cap indices took a beating, losing between 1.85% and 3.51%, highlighting growing risk aversion in broader markets.
Eight Stocks to Watch on Monday’s Radar
Market experts have lined up a handful of stock-specific plays for short-term traders. Here are eight key buy/sell ideas making the rounds this morning:
📌 Buy Calls
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Sun Pharma: A recovery move could test ₹1,580-1,600.
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Tata Steel: Bullish momentum may extend if ₹176 holds.
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Mahindra & Mahindra: Q1 results may support an uptick toward ₹2,600.
📌 Sell Calls
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Asian Paints: Weak earnings expected; downside risk to ₹2,720.
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ITC: Bearish below ₹450; could slip toward ₹430.
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IndusInd Bank: Post-result volatility; key support ₹1,400.
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Maruti Suzuki: Resistance seen at ₹12,000.
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Hindustan Unilever: Caution below ₹2,450.
Tip: Keep a close eye on result-day moves. Many of these stocks could break key technical levels on earnings surprise or disappointment.
Global Headwinds: Fed Watch, China Talks, and U.S.–EU Momentum
Markets worldwide are dancing on a tightrope. While India wrestles with its own earnings season, global investors are watching the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision due this week. After a quarter of cautious optimism, any hawkish surprise from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could jolt global equities.
Further east, the U.S.–China trade talks are resuming in Stockholm, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and China’s Vice Premier He Lifeng meeting to hash out issues including Beijing’s oil trade with Russia and Iran.
Adding to the mix: the U.S. just finalized a new EU trade deal over the weekend, imposing a uniform 15% tariff that replaces the previously threatened 30% blanket duty. This could alter investor positioning across global manufacturing and energy names.
Earnings Tsunami: A Make-or-Break Week for Sector Leaders
Back home, investors are preparing for a results-heavy week that includes some of the biggest names on Dalal Street. Expectations are high — and the margin for disappointment is slim.
Here’s a look at the top Q1 earnings on tap:
| Company | Sector | Key Watch Point |
|---|---|---|
| IndusInd Bank | Banking | Loan growth, asset quality |
| Asian Paints | FMCG | Volume trends, rural demand |
| NTPC | Power | Capacity utilization, fuel costs |
| Tata Steel | Metals | Export realizations, debt reduction |
| HUL | FMCG | Rural demand revival |
| Mahindra & Mahindra | Auto | SUV sales volume, EV margins |
| Maruti Suzuki | Auto | ASPs, hybrid adoption metrics |
| Sun Pharma | Healthcare | U.S. generics, specialty pipeline |
| ITC | FMCG/Cigarette | Volume growth, hotel business margins |
These numbers will offer investors a pulse check on consumer sentiment, commodity pressures, and global headwinds — all rolled into corporate profit performance.
Data-Driven Moves: IIP, PMI, and Monthly Auto Sales Ahead
Beyond earnings, a slate of macro data releases could set the tone for August. Key among them:
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HSBC Manufacturing PMI (July): An early view of industrial momentum.
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Industrial Production (IIP): A backward-looking but still influential gauge.
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Monthly Auto Sales (July): Real-time consumer demand indicator, especially in rural-heavy segments like two-wheelers and tractors.
Also worth watching is the expiry of July derivatives contracts, which tends to introduce sharp intraday moves and last-minute sector rotations.
Market Mood: Nervous but Not Broken
One-liner? The mood is edgy, but not yet panicked.
Investors are treading lightly, knowing the technical setup is fragile and the news flow — both domestic and international — could tilt sentiment either way. There’s plenty of money waiting on the sidelines for cues, but fewer are willing to bet big before the dust settles from this week’s critical events.
