Former President Donald Trump is expected to surrender to authorities in Georgia this week over his alleged election meddling, casting a shadow over the first Republican presidential debate of the 2024 campaign.
Trump faces multiple criminal charges
Trump, who is leading the polls among GOP voters, has been indicted in four states for his attempts to overturn his 2020 election loss to Joe Biden. He faces charges of election subversion, obstruction of justice, fraud, and racketeering in New York, Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin. He also faces three civil lawsuits from voting machine companies and election officials who accuse him of defamation and conspiracy.
Trump has denied any wrongdoing and has claimed that he is the victim of a political witch hunt by Democrats and the “fake news” media. He has also refused to cooperate with the investigations and has challenged the legality and constitutionality of the indictments.
Trump snubs first GOP debate
The first Republican presidential debate, organized by Fox News, is scheduled for Wednesday in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The event is expected to feature seven candidates who have qualified based on their polling and fundraising numbers. They are:
- Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is seen as Trump’s closest ally and potential successor
- North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum, who has touted his record of handling the COVID-19 pandemic
- Former Vice President Mike Pence, who has tried to balance his loyalty to Trump with his own presidential ambitions
- Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, who has criticized Trump’s role in the January 6 Capitol riot
- South Carolina Senator Tim Scott, who is the only Black Republican in the Senate and a prominent voice on racial issues
- Businessman Vivek Ramaswamy, who is a first-generation Indian American and a vocal critic of “woke” culture
- Former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who is a former federal prosecutor and a friend of Trump
However, Trump has announced that he will not participate in the debate, citing his huge lead in the polls and his disdain for Fox News. He has also hinted that he may skip more debates in the future.
“I am leading the runner up, whoever that may now be, by more than 50 Points. Reagan didn’t do it, and neither did others. People know my Record, one of the BEST EVER, so why would I Debate?” Trump posted on social media on Thursday.
The New York Times reported Friday that Trump had told aides he was planning to upstage his rivals by skipping the event and instead sitting for an online interview with one of his former hosts, Tucker Carlson.
“We haven’t confirmed anything on our end,” a campaign spokesman told AFP.
Trump’s Georgia surrender looms large
Trump’s decision to skip the debate may also be influenced by his looming surrender to authorities in Georgia, where he was indicted last week for allegedly pressuring state officials to overturn the election results in his favor.
According to a senior law enforcement source, Trump is expected to turn himself in at the Fulton County jail on Thursday or Friday, where he may be fingerprinted and photographed for a mug shot. He will then be released on bail and await trial.
The indictment accuses Trump of conspiring with his lawyer Rudy Giuliani and several Georgia Republicans to commit racketeering, election fraud, false statements, and violation of oath by a public officer. The charges stem from a series of phone calls that Trump made to Georgia Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger and other officials in which he asked them to “find” enough votes to overturn Biden’s victory.
The indictment also alleges that Trump and his co-conspirators threatened and intimidated election workers and officials who refused to comply with their demands.
Trump has denounced the indictment as “a disgrace” and “a continuation of the greatest Witch Hunt in American history.” He has also accused Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis, a Democrat, of being biased and politically motivated.
Trump has also used his expected surrender as a fundraising tool, sending out an email on Sunday that referenced a Washington Post report about a “violent Atlanta jail with crumbling walls” and comparing his situation to that of Soviet and Chinese dictators Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong.
How will the debate impact the GOP race?
The potential juxtaposition of Trump’s appearance in Georgia with the first debate will show how every aspect of the political calendar is being entangled in Trump’s legal peril and the unprecedented government effort to try a former president – and potential major party nominee – over his effort to overturn his 2020 defeat.
The debate will offer an opportunity for the other candidates to make their case to Republican voters and donors who may be looking for an alternative to Trump or a backup plan in case he is convicted or disqualified from running again.
Some of the candidates may try to distance themselves from Trump or criticize his actions while others may try to appeal to his base or defend him from the legal onslaught. The debate may also touch on other issues that divide the GOP, such as immigration, health care, foreign policy, social issues, and the role of government.
However, any post-debate bounce for the other candidates may be quickly overshadowed by the media coverage of Trump’s surrender and the ensuing legal drama. Trump may also use his online platform to attack his rivals or claim credit for their ideas.
The debate may also have little impact on Trump’s loyal supporters, who have largely ignored or dismissed his legal troubles and continue to believe that he won the 2020 election and that he is the only one who can save the country from the Democrats.
Trump remains the dominant force in the Republican Party, with a recent poll showing that he has the support of 68% of GOP voters, followed by DeSantis with 12%, Pence with 8%, and Haley with 4%. The other candidates have less than 2% each.
The debate may be an early defining moment in any normal campaign, but in the Trump era, it may be just another spectacle in a race that is anything but conventional.
