Markets Under Pressure as Geopolitical Firestorm Rattles Sentiment

Nifty 50 Eyes 24,500 Retest Amid Israel-Iran War Clouds and Cautious Trading Calls

The stock market is walking on a razor’s edge this Monday. With Nifty 50 struggling below the 24,850 resistance, traders are bracing for potential downside moves as global turmoil — especially the escalating Israel-Iran conflict — continues to overshadow investor sentiment.

The market’s behavior over the past week wasn’t exactly comforting. It ended lower across key indices, and early technicals suggest the tone remains bearish unless a breakout revives confidence.

Geopolitical Fears Grip Investors, Bears Scent Opportunity

The conflict between Israel and Iran, which has rapidly intensified in the last few days, is more than just headline risk right now. It’s turning into a legitimate financial threat.

Market veterans believe that uncertainty is a breeding ground for fear, and that’s showing up in equity charts.

“Right now, Nifty needs to climb above 24,850 to shake off the weakness. As long as it stays below that, bears have the upper hand,” said Amol Athawale, VP of Technical Research at Kotak Securities.

If support at 24,500 gives way, the index could tumble to 24,300 or even lower.

For the Bank Nifty, 55,000–55,200 is the critical floor. If breached, expect panic buttons to be hit.

Last Week’s Numbers Tell Their Own Story

Let’s take a quick look at how major indices fared in the week ending June 13:

While broader indices took a hit, select sectors like IT and pharma offered a glimmer of resistance. However, realty, FMCG, metals, and auto were clear laggards.

8 Stock Ideas to Watch On Monday

So what should you be looking at today? Analysts have been scanning the charts and fundamentals to come up with these picks — a mix of potential buy and sell calls.

Here’s the roundup:

• Buy Tata Consultancy Services (TCS): Good strength on charts and resilience in volatile sessions. Short-term target ₹4,150.

• Buy Sun Pharma: Momentum building, could head toward ₹1,600.

• Buy Divi’s Labs: Defensive bet with breakout chances; ₹4,450 target.

• Buy Tech Mahindra: Positive bias above ₹1,430. IT is holding up well.

• Sell Tata Steel: Heavy selling pressure, may slide below ₹160.

• Sell Hindalco: Bears in control. Below ₹610 could lead to ₹590.

• Sell DLF: Realty not inspiring confidence. ₹850 support crucial.

• Sell Maruti Suzuki: Auto sector profit-booking looks unfinished.

What’s Moving What: From Oil to Options

It’s not just stocks reacting — global oil prices jumped again over the weekend, feeding inflation fears. That’s not great news for India, a major oil importer.

The volatility index (India VIX) surged past 15 last week, hinting at rising nervousness.

Also, options data shows heavy call writing at 24,800–25,000 levels. That’s a red flag. It indicates strong resistance and limited room to move higher — unless something drastic changes.

Market Mood: Wary, Defensive, and Watching the Headlines

This isn’t a time for bold bets. Defensive buying is the name of the game right now. Pharma, large-cap IT, and FMCG are safer harbors. Metal and auto stocks are getting trimmed as traders rush to cut risk.

One analyst put it bluntly: “You can’t fight wars and make new highs in the same breath.”

No doubt, the street will keep its eyes glued to developments in the Middle East. Any hint of de-escalation could spark relief rallies. But if things worsen, the sell button may stay hot all week.

Technical Triggers to Monitor Closely

Here are some quick levels that traders must keep on their radar:

• Nifty 50 Resistance: 24,850 → Above this, a relief rally to 25,100 is possible.

• Nifty 50 Support: 24,500 → Breach could mean 24,300 next.

• Bank Nifty Resistance: 56,000 → Capped so far.

• Bank Nifty Support: 55,000 → A fall below may invite strong selling.

Keep in mind, a sideways market is not necessarily safe — it can snap hard in either direction.

Broader Picture Still Clouded

Global cues are not helping either. The Federal Reserve’s tone remains cautious. US yields are sticky. The dollar is gaining ground, which is pulling FPIs away from emerging markets like India. Net FII outflows last week crossed ₹3,000 crore.

In contrast, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) are stepping in, but that might not be enough if global shocks get worse.

And then there’s the monsoon. It’s been erratic so far — that could further weigh on consumption and rural demand in the coming weeks.

Caution Is King — But There’s Always a Trade

For now, traders are advised to keep positions light and be picky. Stop-losses are essential. And avoid the temptation to catch falling knives, especially in high-beta names.

Here’s a final takeaway from a market veteran:

“Don’t try to be a hero this week. Stay nimble, stay safe, and let the dust settle.”