GIFT Nifty Signals Steady Open as Q1 Earnings Loom Large Over D-Street

Indian equities looked poised for a mildly positive open Thursday, with the GIFT Nifty edging 40 points higher, offering a breather to investors caught between volatile foreign flows and a packed earnings calendar. Sentiment stayed cautiously optimistic after Wednesday’s flat close, driven by a late recovery and a softer inflation print that gave the bulls some breathing space.

Foreign institutional investors, however, remained net sellers — a reality that continues to keep traders on edge despite improving macro signals and global cues turning risk-on.

Eyes on Corporate Scorecards as Big Names Set to Report

The spotlight is squarely on earnings. Traders are bracing for a flood of results from market heavyweights that could swing sectoral bets and alter the week’s trajectory.

Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, and ICICI Securities will be under close scrutiny today, with analysts expecting a mixed bag. Margins, NIM compression, and commentary around unsecured lending risks are likely to drive the post-result action.

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L&T Technology Services, L&T Infotech, Angel One, Mastek, and Tata Elxsi round out the tech-heavy lineup. Given the recent underperformance in the broader IT space, any surprises — positive or negative — could fuel swift reactions.

Investors may want to watch for:

• Asset quality commentary from Axis Bank and Bajaj Finance

• Guidance revisions or deal pipelines at L&T Infotech and Tata Elxsi

• Market share and user growth data from Angel One

Even if headline earnings beat expectations, cautious guidance or subdued commentary may overshadow the numbers — something that has played out multiple times this earnings season.

FIIs Still Selling, but Domestic Flows Keep Market Afloat

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) sold shares worth ₹1,376 crore in Wednesday’s session, continuing their selling streak. That’s nearly ₹10,000 crore pulled out in July so far.

But domestic investors haven’t flinched.

In fact, DIIs have bought into every major dip this week. On Wednesday, they picked up ₹1,723 crore worth of equities, offering a stabilizing force to an otherwise nervous market.

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The tug-of-war between FIIs and DIIs is shaping the near-term range for the Nifty.

Market watchers say that unless foreign selling escalates or a global trigger rocks sentiment, the Nifty could hover in a sideways-to-positive zone, led by domestic flows.

Global Sentiment Gets a Boost from U.S. Inflation Data

The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report out Wednesday night helped push global stocks higher. Headline inflation came in at 3%, slightly below estimates, sparking hopes of a September rate cut by the Fed.

Asian markets responded with strength in early trade Thursday. Japan’s Nikkei rose over 1.1%, while the Hang Seng climbed more than 250 points.

Here’s how key indices looked at 8:00 AM IST:

The dollar weakened, and U.S. bond yields slipped, as bets rose for a dovish Fed pivot.

Global risk-on sentiment often gives Indian equities an extra push in early trade, and today could be no different — unless earnings disappoint.

Inflation in Check, But Rate Cut Still Not on RBI’s Radar

Back home, India’s CPI inflation eased to 4.8% in June, down from 4.9% in May, offering some comfort to policymakers. Food inflation showed moderation, particularly in vegetables, which had flared up earlier this year.

Yet, RBI is unlikely to change its cautious stance just yet.

Monsoon patchiness, uneven rainfall in key agri belts, and rising prices in pulses and cereals remain on the central bank’s radar. So while the headline number is within the 2-6% comfort zone, rate cuts are still unlikely this quarter.

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That’s keeping rate-sensitive sectors like banking and autos rangebound for now.

Analysts say the earliest window for a rate cut could be the December policy — provided inflation trends lower and rural demand picks up by the festive season.

Technical Charts Hint at Capped Upside in Nifty, Bank Nifty

Technically, the Nifty is showing signs of fatigue near the 24,450 level. Every bounce is getting sold into, especially near the top end of the channel.

Meanwhile, Bank Nifty continues to lag, failing to break past the 53,000 mark.

Traders are watching 24,250–24,500 as key resistance for the Nifty and 52,200–52,700 for Bank Nifty. A close above those levels would indicate fresh buying momentum.

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Options data shows significant call writing at 24,500 and 24,600.
Put writers are active at 24,200 and 24,300.
That suggests a narrow trading band unless earnings shake things up.

Momentum indicators like RSI are hovering in the neutral zone, not offering a clear signal yet.

What to Watch on Thursday

Thursday’s session is expected to be choppy, driven by earnings, global cues, and FII flows. Here’s what traders will be watching closely:

• Q1 results from Axis Bank, Bajaj Finance, L&T Infotech, Tata Elxsi

• FII/DII cash market flows post-result reactions

• Global movement after Wall Street’s overnight rally

• Any intraday moves in rate-sensitive sectors based on bond yield swings

• Midcap action, especially IT and capital goods names

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Volatility may spike during the second half as traders position ahead of Friday’s weekly options expiry.

If broader market breadth stays positive and banks join the rally, Nifty could challenge 24,500 once more. Otherwise, expect rangebound action with stock-specific volatility.