The Lari Hits a 52-Week High as Tbilisi Stockpiles Dollars

The National Bank of Georgia set 1 US dollar at 2.6039 lari on October 3, 2026, the strongest official dollar print in a year. The euro print was 2.9257 lari, down from 3.0112 on September 15.

That rise in the Georgian lari came while the central bank was a heavy buyer of dollars, Russian money transfers collapsed, and Middle East tourist spending slipped. The leftover surplus is still large enough to lift the currency.

A 52-Week Low on the Dollar Print

The bank’s official daily lari exchange rates are the reference Georgian banks, firms and the tax system use. They are indicative for most private deals, and commercial desks quote a spread around them. Bank of Georgia’s listed cash prices on October 3 were 2.571 to buy a dollar and 2.635 to sell one.

The October 3 dollar print is also the 52-week low. Over the past year the official rate has traded between 2.7470 and 2.6039, with a 52-week average of 2.6744, and the dollar has fallen 4.40% against the lari on that window. The previous business-day list, dated October 2, was 2.6042 per dollar and 2.9407 per euro.

The euro moved more. From 3.0112 lari on September 15 to 2.9257 on October 3 is a 2.8% drop in lari per euro, a mix of local demand and the dollar-euro cross. Mid-September’s dollar print, 2.6091, barely budged by comparison.

OFFICIAL DOLLARS PER YEAR

Those yearly averages of NBG dollar prints show 2026 running firmer than 2024 and 2025, though still short of 2023, when the dollar briefly printed 2.4830. The 2025 year-end print was 2.6963, so the move from that close to 2.6039 is a further 3.4% this year, a different stretch from the 4.40% 52-week change.

The Central Bank Keeps Buying the Surplus

A floating rate that keeps grinding stronger while the central bank buys dollars is not an accident of tourism season. Each net purchase adds lari to the market and takes dollars out. That should cap how far the currency runs. It has not been enough.

Gross international reserves reached an all-time high of USD 8.14 billion in August 2026, up 56.4% from a year earlier and up USD 613 million from July. The IMF-style adequacy reading stood at 128.2%. The bank said the stock has doubled against October 2024. July had already set a then-record USD 7.53 billion.

International reserves have reached an all-time high. It has strengthened our ability to withstand external shocks and safeguard macroeconomic stability.

Natia Turnava, President, National Bank of Georgia, Tbilisi central bankers’ meeting, September 18, 2026

Net purchases on the BMatch platform were USD 3,122.2 million from January through August. The only net sale was a small March round, when fighting in the Middle East briefly hit inflows.

Net Purchases Hit $3,122.2 Million This Year

2026 BMATCH ROUNDS

1. January 2026: Net purchase of USD 86.6 million.
2. February 2026: Net purchase of USD 429.3 million.
3. March 2026: Net sale of USD 16.2 million.
4. April 2026: Net purchase of USD 333.3 million.
5. May 2026: Net purchase of USD 632.9 million.
6. June 2026: Net purchase of USD 612.6 million.
7. July 2026: Net purchase of USD 488.2 million.
8. August 2026: Net purchase of USD 555.6 million.

January through June came to USD 2,078.4 million. Through July the running total was USD 2,566.6 million. August’s USD 555.6 million took the eight-month sum to USD 3,122.2 million. The next reserve update is due on October 7, 2026.

A 14.1% Gold Share in the Pile

Part of the headline reserve gain is metal, not dollars bought on BMatch. The bank made its first gold purchases in 2024 and bought another USD 100 million of monetary gold in June 2026. By August the gold book was USD 1,149.2 million, 14.1% of gross reserves, after a USD 135 million month-on-month lift from prices. In July gold was USD 1,014.1 million, or 13.5%.

Buying gold does not print lari the way a BMatch dollar purchase does. It still swells the buffer the bank cites when it argues it can sit through the next shock without dumping the currency.

Russia Falls to 11th in Money Transfers

The 2022-23 story was Russian inflows and a packed tourist calendar. That mix is thinner now, and the currency is firmer anyway.

Money transfers into Georgia were USD 295.17 million in August 2026, down 8.2% from a year earlier. Transfers from Russia were USD 5.07 million, down 87.7%, 1.7% of the total, which put Russia 11th. The EU sanctions package that hit the Zolotaya Korona transfer system in late July cut the main rail many households had used. TBC Capital has said some of that flow may reroute, but it would not guess how fast.

The eight-month total was still USD 2.5 billion, up 7% year on year. Full-year 2025 inflows were USD 3.6 billion. The United States and Italy now lead the monthly list.

AUGUST 2026 TRANSFER SOURCES

• United States: USD 64.14 million, the largest single-country line.
• Italy: USD 55.22 million, still the second-largest corridor.
• European Union: USD 149.93 million, 50.8% of all inflows.
• Germany, Greece, Israel: USD 31.31 million, USD 28.24 million and USD 27.92 million.
• Russia: USD 5.07 million, 11th after the Zolotaya Korona halt.

Travel receipts, 12.3% of GDP in 2025, cooled as well. Galt & Taggart put second-quarter 2026 tourism revenue at USD 1.1 billion, down 3.8% year on year, after a 65.1% drop in arrivals from Iran and a 61.9% drop from Saudi Arabia. First-half revenue was USD 1.9 billion, down 2%, with a full-year figure of USD 4.9 billion still on the house forecast. The National Bank’s own second-quarter policy report said first-quarter travel-revenue growth was 0.5%.

Goods exports and EU and US transfers filled part of the hole. Galt & Taggart recorded a 24.0% year-on-year rise in goods exports in March, when tourism from Israel and the Gulf was at its weakest. A World Bank update put the current account deficit of 3.8 percent of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, down from 8.5% a year earlier.

What a Stronger Lari Means for Prices and Payrolls

A stronger lari cheapens dollar imports and lifts the foreign value of lari savings, while exporters get fewer lari per dollar they bring home. The central bank has banked the surplus as reserves instead of letting the print fall toward 2.50.

Fuel is the live test. Annual inflation was 5.6% in August, against a 3% target, and the bank blamed energy prices after the Middle East shock. A firmer lari trims the lari cost of imported petrol and diesel, which is why the same committee that is holding a high policy rate is also happy to see the dollar print drift lower, so long as it can keep buying the surplus.

Lari deposits at Bank of Georgia were advertised around 8.55% a year, so holders collected both that coupon and a firmer exchange rate. The extra return is the price of Georgian country risk and of the chance that the surplus fades. A dollar checking account does not pay that coupon, and it does not need a corridor through Tbilisi.

Hotels and wine exporters that invoice in dollars or euros feel the other side. Each dollar they convert buys fewer lari than it did when the 2025 average print was 2.7415. Importers of cars, machinery and consumer goods get the inverse: the same dollar invoice costs less in local wages.

WHERE EXPERTS DISAGREE

• How far it could have run: Archil Iakobashvili, a former manager of the National Bank’s international reserves, said 2025 purchases left the year-end dollar rate at 2.6963 after a 4% rise, and that a different mix of operations could have taken the print toward 2.50.
• What the bank is choosing: The National Bank’s written policy is to replenish reserves when the market allows, and the August stock, USD 8.14 billion, is the result of that choice rather than a free float toward Iakobashvili’s 2.50.
• Where models sat in May: TBC Capital cut its dollar-lari forecast to 2.65 from 2.70 in May and still called the currency cheap on its gauges; the October 3 print of 2.6039 is already through that forecast.

The gap between 2.50 and 2.6039 is the reserve program, measured in lari. Households paid for those reserves by not getting a still-cheaper import bill. The bank’s bet is that USD 8.14 billion in the vault is worth more in the next shock than another few tetri on the print now.

The 2022 Shock and the Quiet Grind Since

The lari’s modern high-water mark against the dollar is still 2023, when the official print touched 2.4830. That was the tail of the wartime inflow surge, when Russian migrants, transfers and visitors flooded Tbilisi and Batumi and the currency was often listed among stronger emerging-market names. The 2023 average, 2.6290, remains firmer than 2026’s 2.6638 running mean.

The earlier climb against the dollar did not last as a straight line. Galt & Taggart’s shock ladder is blunt: 26% weaker in March 2020 at the start of Covid-19, 14% around the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, 4% to 6% in the 2023-24 domestic political crisis, and 2.7% in the first week of March 2026 when the Iran fight hit flights. Each swing was smaller than the one before. March 2026 was also the only month this year the bank was a net seller of dollars.

The 2022 yearly average of 2.9110, with a high of 3.4019, is the memory that still sits under every Tbilisi loan contract written in dollars. A print at 2.6039 does not erase that. It does mean a household that borrowed in dollars in 2022 is servicing that debt with fewer lari than it did at the worst 2022 fix, and with fewer than the 2025 average of 2.7415.

The June policy note added a global tailwind the bank does not control. A weaker US dollar in world markets, it said, is “an additional supportive factor” for the lari. Local surplus and a soft dollar can stack. They have stacked through the summer, which is why BMatch stayed in buy mode from April through August.

Inflation Holds at 5.6% as Policy Stays at 8.25%

The Monetary Policy Committee left the refinancing rate at 8.25% on September 9, 2026, and said it would raise it in small steps if energy shocks feed into expectations. Annual inflation was 5.6% in August. The committee’s later forecast is for inflation to average 5.2% in 2026 and to ease toward the 3% target over the medium term. Core inflation, stripping food, energy and tobacco, was 3.5% in May, with services at 3.8%.

Growth has not been the constraint. The bank put April growth at 6.2% and the first four months at 8.3%. High-output sectors, it said, have carried a lot of that, which takes some heat off demand-side prices even while headline inflation sits on fuel.

A strong currency is one of the few domestic tools that lean against imported energy without another rate rise. That is the quiet link between the USD 3,122.2 million of purchases and the 8.25% hold. The bank is soaking up dollars so the print does not spike higher in a panic, and it is still letting the residual surplus push the dollar down, which trims the lari price of oil.

The next reserve figures are due on October 7, 2026. The next rate meeting is on October 21. Until then the working print is 2.6039 per dollar and 2.9257 per euro, a 52-week low on the dollar list, posted by a central bank that has spent the year buying the currency’s own strength.

Disclaimer: This article is news reporting and analysis of publicly posted exchange rates, central-bank data and related figures. It is for information only and is not investment, currency-trading, tax or legal advice. Readers should consult a licensed financial adviser, bank or accountant in their own jurisdiction before converting currency, opening a deposit or making any decision based on exchange-rate moves. Official rates, commercial quotes, reserve totals and inflation readings change, and the figures here reflect the National Bank of Georgia and other named sources on the dates given in the piece.