Still stressing over your March Madness bracket? A Georgia Tech professor might have the answer — and his model’s calling a win for the Yellow Jackets this Friday.
The Man Behind the Model
Joel Sokol, an industrial engineering professor at Georgia Tech, isn’t your average bracket predictor. While most fans rely on gut feelings or past championships, Sokol turns to data. His Logistic Regression Markov Chain model — better known as LRMC — has been crunching numbers and predicting NCAA tournament outcomes since 2003.
What began as a side project fueled by his love of sports analytics has grown into an annual tradition, with his predictions covering not just men’s basketball but also women’s and even college football playoffs.
“We’ve been doing this for over 20 years now,” Sokol said. “It’s always interesting to see how the numbers stack up against the actual results.”
Jackets Get the Edge in Round One
This year, Sokol’s model has some bold takes — especially when it comes to his home team. Georgia Tech’s women’s squad, led by coach Nell Fortner, stormed through the season with a 15-0 start, earning a spot in the NCAA tournament for the third time since 2020.
Sokol’s numbers give the Jackets the upper hand against Richmond in the first round. And if they pull that off? UCLA, a top seed, could be a tougher — but not impossible — hurdle.
“Of the one seeds, UCLA looks the most beatable,” Sokol noted. “If Tech gets through Richmond, they’ve got a real shot at making it interesting.”
Meanwhile, Georgia’s men’s team, coached by Mike White, finds itself in a tricky Midwest regional draw. A No. 9 seed, they’re set to face off against Gonzaga — a team Sokol’s model ranks highly.
“Georgia has the tougher of the two assignments,” Sokol admitted. “Gonzaga’s a really strong team, and they’re ranked accordingly in our method.”
A Data-Driven Approach to Bracket Building
Sokol’s model doesn’t just spit out winners — it offers insight into why certain teams perform better. By analyzing team statistics, game results, and strength of schedule, LRMC evaluates how teams would fare if they played on neutral courts repeatedly.
For fans looking to improve their own brackets, Sokol has some practical advice:
- Stick with the higher seeds early on, even though upsets are exciting.
- Pay attention to teams with strong defensive records — they tend to perform better under tournament pressure.
- Don’t get too caught up in Cinderella stories. “A few lower seeds will make noise,” Sokol said, “but the deeper rounds usually belong to the top programs.”
Beyond the Bracket
Sokol’s model has earned national recognition over the years. It’s even been featured in sports data studies and academic papers. Still, he remains focused on the fun of the tournament.
“I love seeing the reactions when the data gets something right — or really wrong,” he laughed. “That’s the beauty of sports. You never truly know what’s going to happen.”
With Georgia Tech tipped to win its opening game, fans might have reason to trust Sokol’s numbers — at least for the first round.
