Suspicious Surge in Car Exports Raises Questions
Georgia’s car exports hit a record high in 2024, with over $2.4 billion in vehicles shipped out of the country. But the real surprise? Kyrgyzstan, a small Central Asian nation more than a thousand miles away, was the biggest buyer. That’s raising eyebrows, particularly as the discrepancy between Georgian and Kyrgyz trade data suggests a significant portion of these cars are vanishing before reaching their stated destination.
Massive Growth in Trade Spurs Concerns
The numbers are staggering. Georgia’s exports to Kyrgyzstan shot up by 85% last year, totaling $1.3 billion. That’s an unprecedented increase, especially given that automobiles made up a significant chunk of these shipments. The concern? Many believe this surge is linked to Russia’s need to bypass Western sanctions.
Since 2022, when Russia invaded Ukraine, Western countries have imposed sanctions restricting the Kremlin’s access to key goods. But Moscow has found ways around them, often through third countries. Kyrgyzstan has become a known transit point for sanctioned goods, and the influx of automobiles into the country has been particularly noteworthy. In 2023, over 180,000 cars entered Kyrgyzstan—an enormous leap from just 40,000 the year before.
Azerbaijan’s Role Diminishes, Kyrgyzstan Steps Up
Historically, Georgia’s car export market revolved around Azerbaijan. In 2023, Azerbaijan was Georgia’s top trade partner, importing over $430 million in automobiles. But last year, Azerbaijan slipped to third place, while Kyrgyzstan took the top spot. Some experts believe this shift is due to a crackdown on re-exporting cars from Azerbaijan, forcing traders to reroute shipments through Kyrgyzstan instead.
Meanwhile, the numbers don’t quite add up. According to Georgia’s official statistics, the country exported $964 million worth of cars to Kyrgyzstan in the first ten months of 2024. But Kyrgyz customs data tells a different story—only about $50 million worth of vehicles were recorded entering the country. That leaves a staggering $900 million worth of vehicles unaccounted for.
Where Are the Cars Really Going?
The answer seems obvious to many observers: Russia. With Western car brands halting operations in Russia, the demand for foreign vehicles has soared. While China has stepped in to fill some of the gaps, there’s still a market for European, Japanese, and American cars that are harder to obtain directly.
Several indicators suggest the cars are being re-routed:
- Lack of domestic demand in Kyrgyzstan: With a population of just 7 million, Kyrgyzstan doesn’t need over 180,000 imported cars annually.
- Sharp discrepancies in customs data: Georgia reports sky-high exports, while Kyrgyzstan records only a fraction of that amount.
- Patterns of past behavior: Russia has used similar tactics with other goods, rerouting them through neighboring states to sidestep sanctions.
Authorities Scramble for Control—Or Look the Other Way?
Both Georgia and Kyrgyzstan insist they are working to curb illicit trade, but critics say enforcement is lax at best. Georgian authorities officially banned direct car re-exports to Russia in 2023. Yet, trade figures suggest that hasn’t stopped vehicles from making their way north.
In Kyrgyzstan, the government has recently introduced stricter customs regulations aimed at reducing the country’s involvement in sanction evasion. But with trade still booming, it’s unclear if these measures are having any real impact.
At the same time, Georgia is facing mounting pressure from the United States and European Union. Washington has repeatedly warned that countries facilitating Russia’s access to sanctioned goods could face secondary sanctions themselves. The question is whether these warnings will translate into concrete action—or if the illicit car trade will continue flowing uninterrupted.
The Bigger Picture: A Test for Western Sanctions
The situation between Georgia, Kyrgyzstan, and Russia highlights a broader issue: the effectiveness of Western sanctions. If third-party countries continue serving as conduits for restricted goods, Moscow can mitigate much of the economic pressure intended to curb its military actions in Ukraine.
For now, the numbers speak for themselves. As long as the discrepancies persist, suspicions will remain. Whether authorities in Georgia or Kyrgyzstan will take serious action—or if Western governments will intervene—remains to be seen.
