Georgia’s economy is under pressure from national policies, with experts warning of a near coin toss chance of recession in 2026. A new forecast from the University of Georgia’s Selig Center highlights how President Donald Trump’s tariff war and other factors are slowing growth and raising risks across the state.
The report, released this week, predicts Georgia’s economic growth will stay sluggish at around 1.3 percent next year, far below its potential. This comes as trade tensions disrupt key industries, from ports to manufacturing, while immigration changes add more hurdles.
Key Findings from the Economic Forecast
The Selig Center’s annual outlook paints a cautious picture for Georgia. It notes that national headwinds, driven by politics in Washington, will keep suppressing state growth.
Authors point out that without these issues, the economy could expand faster. Instead, uncertainty from trade policies has led to fewer business projects and slower job creation.
The forecast estimates a 49 percent chance of recession, up from previous years. This risk stems from external forces like global trade disruptions.
Humphreys, the report’s lead author, stressed that Georgia relies heavily on international trade. This makes the state more vulnerable than others to tariff impacts.
Recent data shows U.S. tariff revenue has jumped to over 30 billion dollars per month, compared to under 10 billion last year. This shift affects Georgia’s export-dependent sectors.
How Tariffs Are Hitting Georgia Hard
Trump’s tariffs, raised on goods like steel, aluminum, and cars, have ripple effects in Georgia. The state exports billions in products, from machinery to food, through its busy ports.
Savannah and Brunswick, key coastal hubs, have seen mixed results. While some cargo records were set recently, overall growth is stunted by higher costs and reduced demand.
In north Georgia, towns like Dalton and Gainesville feel the pinch. Flooring and food production industries face higher input costs and lost overseas markets.
Economists warn that these tariffs act like a tax on households, adding about 1,200 dollars per U.S. family this year. Georgia families are not immune, with rising prices for everyday goods.
A table below outlines major tariff changes and their estimated impacts:
| Tariff Category | Rate Increase | Estimated Impact on Georgia |
|---|---|---|
| Steel and Aluminum | Up to 50% | Higher costs for manufacturing, affecting 10,000+ jobs |
| Imported Cars | 25% | Reduced auto exports, hitting port activity by 15% |
| Semiconductors | New tariffs | Slowed tech investments, potential loss of 5,000 jobs |
| Pharmaceuticals | Varied rates | Increased medicine prices, adding 200 dollars per household |
This data reflects how broad tariff hikes, starting early in 2025, have pushed average U.S. rates to nearly 18 percent by fall.
Smaller communities suffer more, as their economies tie closely to global trade. Atlanta, with its diverse base, holds up better but still sees slower expansion.
Job Market Holds Steady but Faces Risks
Georgia’s job market remains stable for now, with unemployment hovering around 4 percent through late 2025. However, growth is lackluster, adding fewer positions than in prior years.
The forecast predicts subpar job gains in 2026, mainly due to trade war fallout. Sectors like logistics and manufacturing could see slowdowns.
Humphreys noted that restrictive immigration policies compound the issue. Georgia’s farms and construction sites rely on immigrant labor, and limits could lead to shortages.
Recent layoffs in export industries have spiked, with over 1 million U.S. jobs lost nationwide this year. Georgia accounts for a share, especially in trade-heavy areas.
Despite this, some bright spots exist. Tech and healthcare in metro Atlanta continue to hire, buffering the state average.
Regional Variations Across the State
Not all parts of Georgia face the same challenges. Metro Atlanta’s economy, driven by services and finance, shows resilience with growth near 2 percent.
In contrast, rural and industrial regions lag. The report highlights how port cities depend on steady shipping volumes, now threatened by retaliatory tariffs from trade partners.
For example, Asia and Europe have responded with their own duties, cutting demand for Georgia peanuts and poultry.
Coastal areas like Savannah set cargo records earlier this year, but experts predict a dip if tariffs persist.
Inland spots, such as the Appalachian region, benefit from domestic projects but struggle with export hits.
Expert Views on Broader Economic Pressures
Leading economists agree that Trump’s policies create uncertainty. A JPMorgan analysis from earlier this year pegged recession odds at 40 percent nationally, aligning with Georgia’s forecast.
Oxford University experts have warned that high tariffs could echo the Great Depression era, when similar moves deepened economic woes.
Humphreys added that consumer confidence is tanking, with Atlanta Fed projections showing GDP contraction risks.
Other factors include high consumer debt and geopolitical tensions, amplifying the slowdown.
- Trade war effects: Reduced exports by up to 18 percent in key sectors.
- Immigration curbs: Potential labor shortages in agriculture and construction.
- Housing constraints: Slower building due to higher material costs from tariffs.
- Inflation pressures: Expected price hikes as inventory runs low.
These points underscore the interconnected risks facing Georgia.
Looking Ahead: What It Means for Residents
The outlook suggests Georgia could avoid recession if policies ease, but the 49 percent risk demands attention. Businesses and workers should prepare for continued slow growth.
State leaders may push for relief, like trade negotiations or local incentives. Residents face higher costs, so budgeting for inflation is key.
For now, the job market offers some stability, but vigilance is essential. As 2026 approaches, tracking national policy shifts will be crucial.
What do you think about these economic risks? Share your thoughts in the comments and pass this article along to friends facing similar concerns.
