Mounting arrests, Russian ties, and a silenced opposition stir fears of authoritarian slide in the post-Soviet republic
The streets of Tbilisi aren’t quiet anymore. They haven’t been for months.
What began as scattered resistance against a controversial foreign influence law has morphed into a long, grinding standoff between Georgia’s increasingly defiant opposition and a government critics say is sliding toward full-blown autocracy.
Over 200 days in, the protests haven’t let up. And neither has the crackdown.
Detentions and Defiance in Parliament
Dr. Grigol Gegelia was elected under the Lelo Strong Georgia coalition, but he hasn’t taken his seat in Parliament. Like the rest of the opposition bloc, he’s boycotting the legislature entirely, calling it illegitimate and tightly controlled by the ruling Georgian Dream party.
On a recent webinar hosted by the UK-based advocacy group Grassroots for Europe, Gegelia appeared visibly shaken. Moments before logging on, he said, a fellow party worker had been detained by state police. “It’s getting worse by the hour,” he warned.
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And while the international press has occasionally picked up headlines from Georgia, the day-to-day reality remains stark and largely unreported.
State Control Ramps Up
The ruling party, Georgian Dream, has aligned itself more openly with Moscow in recent months, fueling fears that Tbilisi’s fragile democracy—long seen as a potential EU success story—is veering toward Russia-style repression.
What’s changed? A few critical moves:
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A so-called “foreign agents” law passed earlier this year, modeled after Kremlin legislation used to stifle NGOs and independent media
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Surveillance and harassment of civil society groups and journalists
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Escalating use of police force against protesters, with beatings, water cannons, and arbitrary detentions
Some say it’s already crossed the line into authoritarianism. Others argue it’s not quite there—yet.
Warnings From Diplomats Who’ve Seen It Before
Alexandra Hall Hall, the former UK ambassador to Georgia, is one of those ringing the alarm bells. At the same online event, she drew direct parallels between Georgia’s democratic erosion and trends in both the U.S. and EU.
“Democracy can collapse faster than we think,” she said. “We’ve been conditioned to believe that institutions and checks will always hold. But that’s just not true.”
Her warning wasn’t just for Georgia. It was for anyone paying attention.
Actually, it hit home with a lot of people watching.
From Hope to Crackdown: A Quick Descent
The speed of Georgia’s transformation has stunned even longtime observers. Just a few years ago, the country was seen as a reform success story, with ambitions to join the European Union and NATO. Now, those aspirations appear distant.
The government insists it’s acting in defense of national sovereignty. But opposition figures call that a smokescreen.
Here’s what they say has happened since early 2024:
| Month | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 2024 | Georgian Dream forms commission on “foreign influence” | Sparks outrage among NGOs |
| Mar 2024 | Parliament passes controversial “foreign agents” bill | Protesters flood Rustaveli Avenue |
| Apr–Jun 2024 | Police crackdowns escalate | Dozens hospitalized, hundreds arrested |
| Dec 2024 | Saba Buadze warns of deepening repression | “We are at the stage of autocracy” |
| Jul 2025 | Over 200 days of continuous protest | Opposition declares Parliament illegitimate |
Many fear that if elections in 2026 proceed under the current government, they may be neither free nor fair.
The Russian Shadow
Georgia’s political fault line has always run along its stance toward Moscow. Georgian Dream, founded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili—a man with deep financial ties to Russia—has increasingly mirrored Kremlin-style messaging.
State media vilifies the West. NGOs are accused of undermining national sovereignty. European diplomats are treated with open disdain.
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Meanwhile, public sentiment remains strongly pro-European. Polls consistently show over 80% of Georgians support EU accession.
That disconnect is at the heart of this crisis.
On the Ground, It’s Getting Ugly
Local activists report a spike in disappearances, late-night detentions, and coordinated online smear campaigns. The goal, they say, is intimidation.
“People are afraid to talk,” said one Tbilisi-based lawyer who asked not to be named. “But they’re still out there. Every night, marching.”
The opposition, fragmented for years, has found new momentum in the protests. Alliances like Lelo Strong Georgia have gained visibility, even as state media refuses to air their views.
Still, the price is high. Arrests come with heavy fines. Some detainees have reported beatings. Others face tax audits or targeted surveillance.
It’s a constant pressure campaign.
What Comes Next?
That’s the big question. With international attention fleeting and domestic institutions compromised, the opposition’s options are limited. And while the EU and U.S. have issued strong statements, concrete pressure—sanctions, aid cuts, or diplomatic isolation—hasn’t followed.
