This week, Radio Free Europe/RL’s Georgian Service sat down with Daniel Foubert, a Polish-French geo-economist and founder of the international affairs consultancy Excalibur Insight, to discuss the European Parliament elections and their implications for France, Germany, the EU, and Georgia.
Winners and Losers
While the far right claims victory, the actual impact on the European Parliament is less significant. Marine Le Pen’s ID group gained about 20 more seats, but this won’t secure a majority. Ursula von der Leyen, who is not considered “far right,” will likely receive support from the ECR and Meloni. However, the real change occurred at the national level in France. The elections produced a political tsunami, likely leading to the end of the Macron government. Macron’s situation is worsening, and he may be forced into an alliance with either the far right or left. Such a government would face challenges in both national and EU matters.
Ukraine and Russia
Marine Le Pen’s pro-Russian stance will impact discussions related to Ukraine. Her position has shifted, but her true intentions remain unclear. Meanwhile, aligning with the French far-left, which is also pro-Russian, could lead to equally disastrous scenarios. France’s choices will reverberate within the EU and affect its foreign policy decisions.
Macron’s Snap Elections
Macron’s decision to call snap elections reflects the urgency of the situation. The outcome will shape France’s political landscape and influence European dynamics.
