The latest projections for asteroid 2024 YR4 have changed course. While initial estimates suggested a real threat of impact with Earth, NASA has now significantly reduced that probability to 0.28%. But scientists are not breathing easy just yet—new data suggests the Moon may now be in the asteroid’s crosshairs.
NASA Lowers Earth Impact Odds but Flags Moon Collision Risk
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has been closely tracked since its discovery in December 2024. Earlier this week, astronomers initially raised alarms by suggesting the asteroid had a 1.5% probability—or roughly 1 in 67 chance—of slamming into Earth on December 22, 2032. That probability was high enough to warrant concern. However, after reanalyzing its trajectory, NASA has now revised the impact risk down to just 0.28%.
“New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues,” NASA stated in a post on X. While this is a relief for those worried about a catastrophic Earth impact, it doesn’t mean the asteroid is out of harm’s way. Scientists are now turning their attention to the Moon, which could be directly in its path.
What Happens if an Asteroid Hits the Moon?
Unlike Earth, the Moon has no atmosphere to break up incoming objects. If asteroid 2024 YR4 were to crash into it, the impact would be dramatic. Instead of an airburst—where the asteroid explodes before reaching the surface—the space rock would strike at full force, creating a new crater and sending debris flying into space.
Some possible effects include:
- A fresh lunar crater, potentially spanning several miles, depending on the asteroid’s size.
- A bright explosion visible from Earth, as past asteroid strikes have shown.
- Ejected debris that could eventually drift toward Earth, though at a low probability of impact.
Given the Moon’s history, an asteroid impact would not be unprecedented. But for astronomers and space agencies, it presents a unique opportunity to study such events in real time.
How Big is Asteroid 2024 YR4 and What Could it Do?
The asteroid’s exact size remains uncertain, but NASA estimates it falls in the range of 130 to 300 feet (40 to 90 meters) across. This means that if it had struck Earth instead, the damage could have ranged from shattered windows to widespread destruction in an urban area.
NASA outlines the risks as follows:
| Estimated Size | Potential Impact on Earth |
|---|---|
| 130 – 200 feet | Could cause an airburst, breaking windows and causing minor structural damage |
| 300 feet | Capable of destroying entire city blocks, collapsing buildings, and causing widespread devastation |
While these scenarios are no longer a top concern for Earth, astronomers remain focused on its evolving trajectory.
Will Space Agencies Attempt to Deflect It?
With over seven years before the asteroid’s closest approach, there is still time to assess its path. However, if the Moon does become a confirmed target, space agencies are unlikely to intervene. Unlike Earth, where planetary defense missions aim to prevent an impact, a collision with the Moon would not pose an existential threat to humanity.
NASA and other agencies continue to refine their observations. More data in the coming months will determine whether the asteroid is indeed on a collision course with the Moon or if its trajectory will shift again. For now, scientists remain on high alert.
