GIFT Nifty edged higher early Friday, signaling a muted opening for Dalal Street after a sharp selloff snapped a three day winning streak. Rising geopolitical tensions linked to Iran and higher crude oil prices are keeping traders on edge. With India VIX jumping over 10 percent, volatility is back in focus for today’s session.
GIFT Nifty Signals Flat to Mildly Positive Open
The GIFT Nifty, traded on the NSE International Exchange in Gujarat, was up around 10 to 13 points in early trade, hovering near the 25,400 mark. This suggests that benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50 and Sensex could open flat to slightly higher.
On Thursday, domestic indices ended sharply lower as profit booking emerged across sectors. The decline ended a three session rally and reflected caution among investors amid global uncertainty.
Technical analysts say the market is at a crucial juncture.
A sustained move below the 200 day moving average could reactivate the bearish trend.
Key Technical Levels for Nifty 50
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Immediate support at 25,330
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Stronger support near 25,000
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Resistance seen at 25,650
Follow up selling on Friday or early next week may push the index closer to lower support zones. However, a bounce above resistance could ease short term pressure.
Geopolitical Tensions and Oil in Focus
Markets remain sensitive to rising tensions involving Iran.
Any escalation that disrupts shipments through the Strait of Hormuz could significantly impact global oil supply. India imports a large share of its crude requirements from the Middle East, making it vulnerable to price spikes.
Crude oil prices have climbed to their highest levels since August, adding to inflation concerns.
Higher oil prices can:
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Widen India’s current account deficit
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Put pressure on the rupee
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Increase input costs for companies
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Weigh on market sentiment
Traders are closely monitoring developments in West Asia as global risk appetite remains fragile.
Global Cues: US and Asian Markets Weak
Wall Street ended lower overnight.
The S and P 500 fell 0.28 percent, the Nasdaq declined 0.31 percent, and the Dow Jones dropped 0.54 percent. Losses in private equity stocks and weakness in large caps such as Walmart and Apple weighed on sentiment, though gains in some industrial stocks limited the damage.
Asian markets followed suit.
Japan’s Topix index slipped about 1 percent, while Australia’s S and P ASX 200 fell around 0.2 percent. Euro Stoxx 50 futures were also trading lower, indicating cautious global sentiment.
The US dollar strengthened, supported by better than expected economic data and a hawkish outlook from the Federal Reserve.
A stronger dollar combined with rising oil prices poses a double challenge for emerging markets like India.
India VIX Spikes as Volatility Returns
India VIX, often called the fear gauge of the market, surged 10.1 percent to close at 13.46.
This sharp rise signals growing nervousness among traders.
When VIX rises, it generally reflects higher expected volatility in the near term. Options premiums also tend to increase during such phases, making hedging strategies more expensive.
A VIX level above 13 indicates that traders are bracing for larger swings in the index.
What Higher VIX Means for Investors
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Wider intraday price movements
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Increased uncertainty
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Higher risk in leveraged positions
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Greater importance of stop losses
Short term traders may need to remain nimble, while long term investors could use dips to accumulate quality stocks gradually.
F&O Ban List and Market Positioning
Two stocks are under the futures and options ban for today’s session:
| Stock | Reason |
|---|---|
| SAIL | Crossed 95 percent of market wide position limit |
| Sammaan Capital | Crossed 95 percent of market wide position limit |
When a stock enters the F&O ban, no new derivative positions are allowed, though existing positions can be squared off.
This usually reflects heavy speculative interest.
Market participants often watch such counters for potential unwinding pressure once they exit the ban.
Rupee Movement and Foreign Flows
The Indian rupee closed at 90.68 against the US dollar in the previous session, gaining 4 paise.
The modest appreciation was supported by foreign fund inflows and positive domestic equity trends earlier in the week. However, rising crude prices and a stronger dollar limited further gains.
Foreign institutional investors were net buyers in recent sessions, offering some support to markets despite global headwinds.
Currency traders expect the rupee to remain range bound, with oil prices and dollar strength acting as key drivers.
Trading Setup for Today’s Session
Today’s trading setup revolves around three main themes:
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Geopolitical headlines related to Iran
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Crude oil price movement
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Technical positioning near the 200 day moving average
If Nifty holds above the 25,330 support zone, a short covering bounce toward 25,650 cannot be ruled out.
However, a decisive break below 25,000 could accelerate downside momentum.
Sectorally, oil marketing companies, aviation stocks, and paint manufacturers may remain sensitive to crude price fluctuations. Banking and financial stocks will also be watched closely for institutional activity.
Investors are advised to:
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Avoid aggressive leveraged trades
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Keep strict stop losses
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Focus on fundamentally strong companies
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Monitor global cues before taking large positions
The market is at a delicate balance point where one strong trigger could tilt the trend sharply.
As Dalal Street prepares for the opening bell, traders are weighing risk against opportunity. Will global tensions ease and support a rebound, or will volatility deepen in the days ahead? Share your view in the comments and tell us how you are positioning your portfolio in this uncertain market phase.
