The Indian stock market sits at a critical junction as we head into trading on Monday, January 19. A powerful surge in technology stocks has injected fresh optimism into the indices. Traders are now watching to see if the Sensex can break past the stubborn 84,100 resistance level. With major earnings reports rolling in and global tensions simmering, volatility is almost guaranteed this week.
Infosys Sparks Fresh Market Optimism
The entire market narrative shifted late Friday thanks to a stunning performance by Infosys. The IT giant surprised the street by raising its revenue growth guidance for the fiscal year 2026. This move immediately triggered a buying frenzy across the technology sector.
Infosys shares jumped over 5 percent to lead the rally. The company reported an 8.9 percent growth in revenue from operations. The figure stood at Rs 45,479 crore for the third quarter. This is a significant jump from Rs 41,764 crore in the same period last year.
Investors love certainty. The decision by the Bengaluru based firm to lift guidance to 3.5 percent in constant currency calmed many nerves. It signals that global demand for tech services remains robust despite fears of a slowdown.
Key Earnings Highlight:
- Company: Infosys
- Q3 Revenue: Rs 45,479 Crore
- Growth: 8.9% Year-on-Year
- New Guidance: 3% to 3.5% (Raised from 2-3%)
This positive energy spilled over to other tech heavyweights. HCL Tech and Tech Mahindra saw significant buying interest. Even banking giants like HDFC Bank and State Bank of India joined the upward march. This broad participation suggests the rally has strong legs.
Critical Technical Levels To Watch
Traders need to keep a close eye on specific price points this Monday. The Sensex managed to close at 83,570.35 on Friday. It was up about 188 points. However, the index is still trading below its intraday high of 84,134.97.
Hitesh Tailor is a Technical Research Analyst at Choice Broking. He believes the market is showing a constructive bias. He notes that the index recovered well from its lows. This indicates a “buy on dips” texture is currently in play.
If the Sensex stays above the 83,000 mark, the trend remains positive. A dip toward this level could be a buying opportunity for aggressive traders.
The real challenge lies overhead. The 84,000 to 84,100 zone is a tough nut to crack. Sellers have previously been active here. The index needs to close decisively above 84,100 to trigger a fresh breakout toward new highs.
Trader’s Cheat Sheet for Monday:
| Level Type | Price Zone | Action Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Support | 83,000 – 83,100 | Good zone to accumulate long positions. |
| Resistance | 84,000 – 84,100 | Watch for profit booking or breakout. |
| Trend | Positive | Bullish bias as long as support holds. |
Tailor emphasized that Friday’s volume was healthy. It was not just selective buying. The accumulation was genuine. This increases the probability of a positive opening on Monday.
Currency Woes and Global Pressures
While equities are cheering, the currency market is flashing warning signs. The Indian Rupee has weakened sharply against the US Dollar. It fell by 48 paise to close at 90.82.
This depreciation is a double edged sword. It is great for IT companies like Infosys that earn in dollars. This explains why the tech sector is outperforming the broader market right now. However, a weak rupee is bad for importers. It increases the cost of oil and other raw materials.
Global geopolitics also remains a worry. Tensions are rising in key trade corridors. This keeps oil prices volatile. Investors are hoping that renewed India US trade discussions will bring some stability.
The market is also nervous about the upcoming Budget 2026. Market participants are positioning their portfolios ahead of the finance minister’s announcements. This often leads to erratic moves in defensive sectors.
Sector Divergence and Laggards
Not every sector participated in the Friday rally. The market is witnessing a clear rotation of capital. Money is flowing out of defensive sectors and into high beta growth stocks.
Pharma and Consumer Durables faced the brunt of selling pressure. Investors booked profits in these counters to chase momentum in IT and Banks. Asian Paints and Sun Pharma were among the top losers. They dragged the indices down and capped gains.
Auto stocks also hit a speed bump. Maruti Suzuki witnessed selling pressure despite the general bullish mood. This divergence highlights a stock specific market. You cannot just buy the index blindly. You need to pick the right sectors.
Top Gainers vs. Losers (Friday Session):
- Gainers: Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, SBI, UltraTech Cement.
- Losers: Asian Paints, Sun Pharma, Bharat Electronics, Maruti.
The NSE Nifty 50 painted a similar picture. It settled at 25,694.35. It was up just 29 points. The index briefly slipped below the 25,700 mark during the day. This shows that bears are still lurking at higher levels.
The Bank Nifty will also be in focus. Banking stocks have shown resilience. If they fire in tandem with IT stocks on Monday, the 84,100 resistance on Sensex could be taken out swiftly.
Monday will be all about momentum. The setup looks good for the bulls. But they must defend the 83,000 support level at all costs.
