Indian stock markets face a cautious start on September 15, 2025, as GIFT Nifty futures drop about 50 points, signaling a potential weak opening for key indices like Nifty 50 and Sensex. This comes after Nifty’s eight-day winning streak, driven by global cheer over an expected US Federal Reserve rate cut, though traders watch for volatility from upcoming central bank moves.
Nifty’s Recent Rally and Key Levels
Nifty 50 closed at 25,114 on Friday, marking its longest winning run in months with a gain of 108 points. The index has climbed over 1,200 points in the past two weeks, supported by strong buying from foreign and domestic investors.
Experts point to a solid support level at 24,900, which could hold if selling pressure builds. Resistance sits at 25,500, where options data shows high open interest. Traders should monitor these zones closely for intraday moves.
- Support: 24,900 to 25,000
- Resistance: 25,300 to 25,500
- Potential upside target: 25,700 if global cues improve
This setup reflects optimism from recent US data, but any surprise in Fed’s decision could swing sentiment.
Global Cues and Fed Rate Cut Hopes
Wall Street ended higher last week, with the Dow up 1.36 percent and Nasdaq at record levels, boosting Asian markets. Investors bet on a 25 basis point Fed rate cut this Wednesday, with odds at over 80 percent based on recent inflation figures.
In Asia, mixed signals emerge: Nikkei 225 hits new highs, while some indices dip amid US-China trade talks. Gold prices hover near $2,500 per ounce, seen as a safe haven if cuts spark dollar weakness.
| Market | Change | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|
| Dow Jones | +1.36% | Rate cut hopes |
| Nasdaq | +0.72% | Tech rally |
| Nikkei 225 | +0.45% | Global optimism |
| Gold | Stable at $2,500 | Inflation data |
These trends could lift Indian stocks if the Fed delivers as expected, but a smaller cut might trigger pullbacks.
Rupee Recovery and Investor Flows
The Indian rupee bounced back from record lows, closing at 88.26 against the US dollar on Friday, up 9 paise. A weaker dollar index below 100 aided this rebound, easing import costs for businesses.
Foreign institutional investors bought net 2,050 crore rupees worth of equities last session, while domestic players added 83 crore. This inflow supports the market’s positive bias, though high valuations in midcaps warrant caution.
Analysts note that ongoing India-US trade talks, highlighted by recent comments from leaders, might reduce tariffs and boost exports in sectors like IT and pharma.
Sector Outlook and Trading Strategies
Banking and IT stocks led Friday’s gains, with HCL Tech up over 2 percent. Energy and auto sectors showed mixed results, but realty dipped on profit booking.
For today, focus on defensive plays if volatility rises. Options traders eye the 25,000 strike for Nifty, with put writing suggesting limited downside.
Strategies include:
- Buy on dips near support for short-term trades
- Avoid leverage in volatile sessions
- Watch banking index for broader cues
Midcap and smallcap indices fell 14 percent from September peaks, signaling broader caution amid global shifts.
Potential Risks and Market Sentiment
While the outlook stays upbeat, risks loom from US election noise and China’s economic data. Trump has shifted focus to China tariffs, potentially benefiting India, but any escalation could hit global trade.
Social media buzz on platforms like X shows traders split: some predict Nifty at 25,700 post-Fed, others warn of a dip below 25,000 if cuts disappoint. Recent events, like the SCO Summit talks on trade, add to the positive narrative.
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