India’s benchmark stock indices are poised for a cautious opening on Monday, with Gift Nifty futures signalling a near-flat start after a choppy week marked by trade tensions, volatile oil prices, and record-setting rallies on Wall Street.
At 7:10 a.m., Gift Nifty was trading around 24,447 — roughly six points above the Nifty futures’ Friday close — indicating traders may keep risk exposure light at the open.
The backdrop is mixed: U.S. equities surged last week with the Nasdaq hitting all-time highs, but Asia’s Monday trade was subdued, with regional investors waiting on key global economic releases and watching for signs of progress in trade negotiations.
Friday’s Selloff Still Fresh
Indian markets closed sharply lower on Friday as sentiment soured on news that U.S. President Donald Trump had approved steep 50% tariffs on Indian goods. The move rattled exporters, auto parts manufacturers, and selected industrial names.
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Sensex: -765.47 points (-0.95%) to 79,857.79
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Nifty 50: -232.85 points (-0.95%) to 24,363.30
The selloff was broad, with only a handful of defensive stocks managing small gains. Financials, metals, and consumer durables bore the brunt of the decline.
Ajit Mishra, SVP – Research at Religare Broking, advised investors to adopt a “defensive-to-neutral stance” and keep cash buffers ready for opportunistic buying during potential deeper corrections.
Seven Market Shifts Over the Weekend
Gift Nifty Hints at Flat Open
Gift Nifty’s 24,447 reading — a modest six-point premium — points to a steady start, though market tone could shift quickly once cash trading begins.
Wall Street Rally Extends
The Nasdaq ended last week at record highs, lifted by strong tech earnings and optimism around upcoming U.S. inflation data. The S&P 500 also posted weekly gains, with mega-cap stocks leading the advance. U.S. futures edged higher early Monday, suggesting the positive momentum could spill into Asia and Europe.
Asian Markets Mixed
Regional trade was muted. South Korea’s Kospi slipped 0.02%, the Kosdaq was flat, and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng futures pointed to a higher open. Japan’s market was closed for a public holiday, muting regional liquidity. MSCI’s broad Asia-Pacific ex-Japan index was marginally firmer.
Oil Prices Volatile
Crude oil ended last week higher but is trading cautiously ahead of fresh OPEC+ output guidance. Brent crude hovers near $85 per barrel, with traders balancing supply constraints against concerns of slower global growth from trade frictions.
Dollar Edges Lower, Rupee Watch
The dollar index eased slightly as traders await U.S. CPI data. A softer greenback could support the Indian rupee at the open, though importers’ month-start demand and any oil price upticks remain risks.
Foreign Fund Flows Under Scrutiny
FPIs were net sellers last week, a trend closely tied to global risk sentiment and U.S. bond yields. Analysts say the tone of U.S.-India trade talks in coming days will heavily influence FPI positioning.
Macro Data Front-Loaded Week
Markets are bracing for a packed week of catalysts: U.S. inflation data, India’s July CPI, corporate Q1 results, and developments from a scheduled meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Technical View: Key Levels in Focus
Nifty 50:
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Support: 24,200, then 24,050
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Resistance: 24,500, then 24,650
Sensex:
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Support: 79,500
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Resistance: 80,200
Traders say the recent breakdown from higher levels needs follow-through selling to confirm a near-term bearish trend. Any bounce toward resistance may see profit-taking, especially in sectors with tariff exposure.
Sectoral Lens
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IT: Could benefit from a weaker rupee and strong Nasdaq performance. Watch for midcap IT earnings this week.
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Metals: Remain under pressure due to tariff concerns and China’s uneven recovery signals.
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Energy: Oil marketing companies may see margin pressure if crude sustains near $85.
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Defensives: FMCG and pharma could outperform if volatility persists.
Investor Sentiment: Defensive Posture
Many fund managers appear to be favouring domestic-demand-driven plays with minimal global exposure. “This is the time to hold quality and avoid chasing momentum in sectors directly linked to trade headlines,” said one Mumbai-based portfolio manager.
Global Calendar Watch
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U.S. CPI (Wednesday): Key for Fed policy expectations.
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India CPI (Thursday): Will guide RBI’s inflation outlook.
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Trump–Putin Meeting (Friday): Potential geopolitical market mover.
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OPEC+ Output Updates: Could sway crude oil direction.
Outlook: Volatility Risk High
While Monday’s open looks calm on paper, the combination of geopolitical headlines, macro data, and earnings updates means intraday volatility could rise sharply.
Traders are bracing for whipsaw moves as the market digests the dual force of positive global tech sentiment and negative trade-war spillovers.
