YES Bank Breaks Out of Slumber: Rides SMBC Deal to Eye ₹27 Mark

Stock trades above 200-DMA for second day; technicals point to 31% potential upside if momentum holds

YES Bank might finally be shaking off its long-standing bearish overhang. With shares jumping nearly 5% in intra-day trade Tuesday to hit ₹21.39, the stock is now holding above its crucial 200-day moving average (₹20.23) for the second straight session. That’s not just a number—it’s a big deal for technical traders.

And the market’s cheering for more. This latest rally comes just days after a game-changing announcement: Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation is snapping up a 20% stake in the troubled Indian lender, signaling fresh foreign confidence. The buzz is back. But is this breakout real?

Foreign confidence returns: SMBC’s big bet stuns the Street

For years, YES Bank has been clawing its way back from the brink. On Monday, the mood shifted dramatically.

SMBC, one of Japan’s top banks, has agreed to acquire 20% of YES Bank for a reported ₹13,482 crore. The sellers? A mix of State Bank of India and seven private lenders, signaling a reshuffling of ownership and perhaps, a signal of better days.

This deal isn’t just big—it’s historic. Analysts are calling it one of the most significant cross-border plays in Indian banking in recent years. And with a heavyweight foreign player now on board, the market is reassessing YES Bank’s potential. The stock has surged 17% in just three sessions.

Tuesday’s spike, despite a red day for the broader indices, shows investors are paying attention.

Above the clouds: What the charts are whispering

The 200-day moving average isn’t some magical number—but when a stock that’s been under it since September 2024 suddenly climbs and sustains above it, technical analysts perk up.

That’s exactly what YES Bank has done this week.

• Current Price: ₹20.86
• 200-DMA: ₹20.23
• Short-term Support: ₹20.40 → ₹20.23 → ₹20.00
• Resistance Levels: ₹23.13 → ₹24.10 → ₹25.50
• Upside Potential: Up to 31%

The stock is also riding the upper band of the daily Bollinger range—another signal that momentum could stay bullish. If it keeps floating above ₹20.40, traders say, the odds of a breakout toward ₹25.50 improve. If it clears that? ₹27.30 is the next station.

What’s next? Watch these lines like a hawk

Let’s be real: the ₹20 mark is a psychological floor. The stock has tested it. Now it’s bouncing.

One red candle below it, though, and all bets are off. That could trigger short-term consolidation. But right now, the script is flipping in favor of the bulls.

Meanwhile, Nifty Bank and the broader Nifty 50 are having a rough week—down 0.7% and 1% respectively. Yet YES Bank is bucking the trend. That relative strength speaks volumes.

Table: YES Bank vs Indices (as of May 13, 2025)

There’s something happening here. YES Bank isn’t just participating—it’s outperforming.

Still a long road ahead, but outlook looks less grim

One day or even a week doesn’t erase the baggage. Let’s not forget: YES Bank has spent the better part of the last four years struggling with asset quality, governance hits, and investor distrust.

That’s why this stake sale matters. It’s not just money coming in—it’s validation. A top-tier foreign bank is betting on the comeback story. That’s not a random endorsement.

Analysts say what happens over the next 10–15 sessions will be critical. Sustaining volume-led buying above ₹20.40 could confirm a breakout. Any drop below ₹20, and traders may pull the brakes.

Even so, here’s what’s changing:

• The sentiment is flipping

• Ownership structure is shifting

• Technicals are aligning

One sentence here: things don’t look as bleak anymore.

Is the ₹25.50 target within reach?

From a purely chart-based view, ₹25.50 isn’t that far. It would mean a 22% rally from current levels. If that breaks too, ₹27.30 becomes a legit possibility. That’s a 31% climb—still speculative, but not out of reach.

But here’s the catch: this all hinges on two things—

1. Broader market stability, especially in banking

2. Continued buying support in YES Bank near ₹20

If those hold, traders might want to keep an eye on that ₹25.50 level.