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Oil Soars, Trump Stokes Tensions as Iran Warns of Military Retaliation After U.S. Strikes

Tehran threatens “all options on table” as war rhetoric escalates; global markets feel the heat

Iran’s fury over U.S. airstrikes has spilled into the streets and across the global stage. With oil prices jumping, markets stumbling, and Donald Trump stirring the pot with calls for regime change, tensions in West Asia just got a lot more combustible.

The United States’ June 21 air assault on three Iranian nuclear facilities has drawn sharp warnings from Tehran and sparked global alarm. As the fallout deepens, Iran’s ambassador to the UN promised a “proportionate” response, while Trump took to Truth Social with a slogan-heavy jab that sounds increasingly like a foreign policy doctrine: “MIGA – Make Iran Great Again.”

“MIGA” and the shadow of regime change

Trump’s Truth Social post on Sunday was blunt. “It’s not politically correct to say ‘Regime Change,’ but if they can’t do it—why not? MIGA!!!” the former and possibly future president wrote, instantly reigniting speculation over Washington’s longer-term ambitions in Iran.

That one line added fuel to a fire already raging across diplomatic circles.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, meanwhile, has stayed largely silent publicly, but street protests in Tehran featured posters of both Khamenei and the late Ayatollah Khomeini, signaling internal defiance. The chants this time weren’t just about Israel—they were directed squarely at the United States.

And then came the UN speech.

Iran’s UN envoy Amir Saeid Iravani told an emergency Security Council session Sunday night that Tehran “reserves all options” under Article 51 of the UN Charter. That clause? It covers self-defense.

iran protest

Tehran blames Netanyahu for dragging U.S. into war

Iran didn’t mince words about who’s to blame for the escalation. Iravani accused Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of “hijacking” American foreign policy and nudging Washington into “another costly and baseless war.”

The speech was filled with fire—and strategy.

“Iran had repeatedly warned the warmongering U.S. regime,” Iravani told the council, “to refrain from stumbling into this quagmire.” That word—quagmire—has a historical weight for Americans still bruised by memories of Iraq and Afghanistan.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry also warned that any further strikes would trigger “military surprises,” though officials stopped short of detailing what those might look like.

One sentence said it all: “The Iranian military will now decide the timing, nature and scale of its response.”

Markets jittery as crude spikes, stocks wobble

Oil traders were the first to respond to the weekend airstrikes, and their message was clear: brace for impact.

Brent crude surged more than 3%, briefly touching $81.40 a barrel, while WTI climbed to $78.40—both marking five-month highs. Fears of supply disruption from Iran, a key OPEC member, have started to seep into global forecasts.

In equities, the mood was more glum:

  • S&P 500 futures dipped 0.5%

  • Nasdaq futures fell 0.6%

  • MSCI’s Asia-Pacific index ex-Japan dropped 0.5%

  • Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.9%

That’s not panic, but it’s far from shrugging things off.

“Markets are repricing risk in the Middle East again,” said a trader at a major Singapore-based hedge fund. “And they’re not liking what they see.”

Global diplomatic channels open—but strained

Behind the public statements, diplomats from several countries including Qatar, Switzerland, and Oman are reportedly trying to calm the waters. Backchannels between Tehran and Washington—most of them routed through Europe—remain open, though trust is thinner than paper.

Two senior EU diplomats told Reuters on background that Iran is currently unwilling to talk directly with Washington until after it “responds” militarily.

At the G7, held in Italy last week, the Iran-Israel situation wasn’t even supposed to be on the main agenda. Now it’s taking over sideline conversations, especially after Trump’s latest remarks.

Still, the White House insists this is not about war. In a press briefing, a senior official reiterated that Operation Midnight Hammer was a “limited, preventive strike targeting nuclear threats,” not a campaign for regime change.

Washington’s messaging splits between war and deterrence

The Biden administration—or what’s left of it as the campaign heats up—has scrambled to downplay any long-term escalation. But Trump’s loud online post makes that task tricky.

One side says this was a surgical move to prevent nuclear escalation. The other is talking about MIGA and overthrowing the Iranian regime.

The contradiction isn’t lost on anyone watching from afar.

It’s also not the first time Trump has alluded to a regime shake-up in Iran. But doing it now, just days after U.S. bombers hit the ground near Qom, gives it a sharper edge—and a lot more baggage.

A U.S. State Department source said off the record that Trump’s comment “complicates messaging, especially when we’re trying to assure partners that this is containment, not conquest.”

Inside Iran: arrests, anger, and preparations

Inside Iran, the mood is tense but not chaotic—at least not yet. The streets of Tehran saw large protests Sunday evening. Posters of fallen IRGC commanders mixed with chants against the U.S., while government officials tightened media coverage and issued advisories against mass gatherings.

The Revolutionary Guard is reportedly mobilizing units in western Iran, and some reports suggest long-range missiles are being repositioned. State media remains vague, offering only patriotic programming and cryptic headlines.

For ordinary Iranians, it’s a bitter déjà vu.

“We’ve lived through this before,” said one Tehran resident, a 38-year-old engineer who requested anonymity. “But it feels different this time. Like something bigger is about to happen.”

Pressure builds on Biden, allies scramble

The pressure cooker isn’t just in the Middle East—it’s political, too.

With a tough election fight ahead, President Biden faces criticism from both sides. Democrats are divided—some urging restraint, others praising the precision strike. Republicans, meanwhile, have seized the moment to question whether Biden is really in charge at all.

NATO members have issued cautious support for Washington but are clearly wary of being pulled into another protracted conflict.

One European diplomat put it bluntly: “We support U.S. deterrence. We don’t support regime change.”

What now?

That’s the million-dollar question—what now?

Iran says retaliation is coming. Trump’s feeding the flames. Biden’s caught in the middle. And oil prices? Well, they’re already speaking louder than any diplomat.

It’s not war yet—but it’s starting to look a whole lot like one.

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