U.S.-India ties tested as Modi refuses to halt Russian crude imports despite Trump’s growing trade pressure
India isn’t backing down. And Donald Trump isn’t letting up.
As the former U.S. president once again trains his attention on global trade, India has landed in the crosshairs—this time, over oil. Trump wants Prime Minister Narendra Modi to stop buying Russian crude. Modi, at least for now, isn’t budging.
Trump Goes Public, Modi Keeps His Cool
Trump’s message was loud, clear, and unusually direct—even for him.
Speaking on CNBC this week, Trump said he would raise tariffs on Indian goods “within 24 hours” unless New Delhi halts its Russian oil imports. It wasn’t just a casual remark. It was delivered with the kind of steel-edged certainty that’s become his trademark. “You can’t keep doing business with Putin and expect full access to our markets,” he said.
The Indian government’s response? Silence—publicly, at least.
Officials in Delhi have so far avoided escalation, but behind the scenes, sources say there’s growing frustration. “This isn’t how we conduct diplomacy,” said one senior Indian trade negotiator, who requested anonymity. “You don’t bulldoze a partner over something they’ve been doing for two years.”
The Oil Math Modi Won’t Ignore
At the heart of this standoff is simple economics.
Ever since the Russia-Ukraine war began in early 2022, India has been buying Russian oil at discounted prices—sometimes up to $25 per barrel cheaper than global benchmarks. That’s helped India cushion inflation, keep fuel prices stable for its vast population, and maintain one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
One official at India’s petroleum ministry said bluntly: “Do we want to upset Washington? Of course not. But we aren’t going to bankrupt ourselves to prove a point.”
Behind the Tariffs: Why Trump’s Timing Feels Odd
This sudden pressure didn’t come out of nowhere—but the timing has raised more than a few eyebrows.
Trump had already announced a 25% tariff on Indian imports last week, citing unfair trade practices. But linking it directly to Russian oil is new. The twist? India has been buying that oil for years—under both Biden and Trump himself.
• Trump is in campaign mode
• He’s looking for leverage in Asia
• India is emerging as a major manufacturing rival to China—and to the U.S.
“Trump doesn’t like when allies try to have it both ways,” said Aparna Pande, a South Asia expert at Hudson Institute. “And Modi has managed to keep both Russia and the U.S. close. That irritates him.”
Modi’s Strategic Bet: Playing Both Sides, But With Limits
Modi has never pretended to be neutral out of naivety—it’s strategy.
New Delhi has walked a careful line between Moscow and Washington since the start of the Ukraine war. It’s condemned civilian deaths, pushed for diplomacy, and abstained from anti-Russia votes at the UN. At the same time, it’s signed defense deals with the U.S., hosted American CEOs, and expanded military drills with Quad partners.
It’s the kind of balancing act few leaders can pull off.
But that line is getting thinner. Trump’s threats put Modi in a corner: either risk a U.S. trade fallout or cut a lifeline to cheap oil.
And so far, Modi is betting that Trump won’t push too far. “India isn’t Europe,” said a senior energy analyst in New Delhi. “We’re not going to sanction ourselves just because someone in Washington is yelling.”
What’s Really at Stake: Trade, Trust, and Global Politics
The tension goes far beyond fuel pumps and tankers. What’s really on the table is trust.
India has become a key U.S. partner—especially as tensions with China escalate. Washington needs New Delhi to counter Beijing in the Indo-Pacific. But every tariff, every threat, chips away at the goodwill built over the past decade.
Here’s how the numbers look right now:
| Indicator | 2023 Figure | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| India-U.S. trade volume | $128 billion | Second-largest trading partner |
| Russian oil share in India’s imports | 35% | Up from just 2% in 2021 |
| Tariffs announced by Trump | 25% (on $12B worth) | Could rise further this week |
| India’s oil savings (2022–24) | ~$9 billion | Due to cheaper Russian crude |
That last line matters. Modi isn’t just being stubborn. He’s protecting billions in public savings and economic stability.
Where This Could Head: Deal or Deadlock?
So what now?
In typical Trump fashion, the White House (or campaign headquarters, rather) hasn’t clarified what exact measures are on the table. Will this affect pharma exports? Tech hardware? Textiles?
India, for its part, is said to be preparing a counter-measure list. But the bigger question is whether Modi will gamble on Trump’s unpredictability—or strike a compromise to ease the pressure.
One former Indian ambassador put it simply: “Modi is a chess player. Trump is a bulldozer. Let’s see who blinks first.”
Backchannel talks are reportedly underway through diplomatic envoys in D.C. and New Delhi. But sources close to India’s commerce ministry say the chances of a major shift in oil policy are “next to zero”—at least before India’s own election next year.
For now, the trucks keep rolling at Indian refineries. And the phone calls between Washington and Delhi? Well, they’re happening. But nobody’s saying what’s being said.
