Russia has signaled a fresh interest in reviving the Black Sea grain deal with Ukraine — a pivotal agreement that once ensured global food stability. But what exactly went wrong the first time, and why is Moscow keen to bring it back now?
A Lifeline for Global Food Supply
The Black Sea Grain Initiative wasn’t just a diplomatic handshake — it was a global food lifeline. Brokered in July 2022 by Turkey and the United Nations, the deal aimed to allow Ukraine, one of the world’s top grain producers, to export food through its southern ports. With overland routes overwhelmed and alternative waterways in Romania stretched thin, this agreement kept vital grain shipments flowing.
For many countries, especially those already battling food insecurity, the deal was a game-changer. Ukraine exported 33 million tonnes of grain under the agreement. A sizable 61% of that went to low- and middle-income nations, with wheat making up the bulk of deliveries to regions like Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan, and Afghanistan. The increased supply even slashed global grain prices, easing pressure on markets worldwide.
Why Did Russia Pull Out?
Moscow’s decision to walk away from the deal wasn’t sudden — it was a slow unraveling. Initially, inspections of Ukrainian vessels ran smoothly. But by late 2022, Russia started dragging its feet. In October, ten daily inspections were routine, clearing 4.2 million tonnes that month. By May 2023, inspections slowed to a crawl — just two per day — and monthly exports plunged to 1.3 million tonnes.
Russia’s main grievance? It claimed the deal’s second part — easing restrictions on its food and fertilizer exports — was left hanging. Moscow argued that sanctions on Russian agricultural goods weren’t lifted clearly enough, leaving insurers wary of covering Russian shipments. The Kremlin also pushed for sanctions relief on its key agricultural bank, but those demands went unmet.
What’s Different This Time?
Fast-forward to March 2025, and Russia is back at the negotiating table, this time in Riyadh. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov confirmed that reviving the grain deal was a top agenda item during talks with U.S. officials. But what’s driving this renewed push?
- Economic leverage: With Western sanctions biting, Moscow may see a revised deal as a way to push for looser restrictions on its agricultural exports.
- Food diplomacy: As global food shortages loom, Russia could be eyeing a chance to position itself as a food security partner — especially for nations in Africa and the Middle East.
- Geopolitical optics: Talks in Saudi Arabia, a U.S.-friendly mediator, offer Russia an opportunity to appear cooperative without conceding ground on Ukraine.
Can the Deal Work — Again?
For the deal to survive a second round, both sides will need guarantees. Ukraine wants its grain exports safeguarded. Russia wants clearer sanctions relief on its agricultural sector. The original deal’s structure — escorted convoys, joint inspections in Istanbul, and international oversight — could make a comeback, but the breakdown revealed a trust deficit that won’t be easy to fix.
The world will be watching closely. If the Black Sea grain deal gets a second life, it won’t just be a win for diplomacy — it’ll be a lifeline for millions who rely on those grain shipments to survive.
