Nifty 50 Struggles Below 24,800 as Global Jitters, Fed Pause Keep Bulls in Check

Geopolitical Risks, Fed Uncertainty Cloud Sentiment; Analysts Eye 24,725 for Direction

A choppy Wednesday on Dalal Street ended with a red close for the Nifty 50, as global tensions and policy uncertainty put traders on edge. With the index finishing just above a key psychological threshold, market watchers are bracing for a potentially volatile Thursday.

The Nifty 50 index slipped 0.17% to settle at 24,812.05, while Bank Nifty defied the broader trend and edged up 0.21% to close at 55,828.75. Sectorally, auto and consumer durables lent support, but broader indices, especially small and midcaps, felt the heat as global developments weighed on risk appetite.

Tug-of-War at 24,800: Bulls Hold Ground But Just Barely

Wednesday’s close was telling. Despite a promising open, the Nifty failed to hold gains. A fierce tug-of-war played out between bulls defending key supports and bears feeding off global unease.

Technical experts say the 24,800 level is pivotal. The index repeatedly bounced off this mark but failed to build any real upside momentum. Shrikant Chouhan from Kotak Securities believes that unless the index clears 24,900 with conviction, sentiment will remain jittery.

If 24,725 breaks, Chouhan warns the slide could extend toward 24,500 quickly. On the flip side, breaching 25,000 could set the stage for a climb to 25,100 — but that’s a big ‘if’ right now.

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Middle East Tensions Keep Oil and Markets Nervous

One major overhang continues to be the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran. For a seventh straight day, missile strikes flew back and forth, with reports now emerging that Iran hit a hospital in Israel and Israel retaliated near Iran’s Arak nuclear facility.

The ripple effects are being felt far beyond the region.

• Brent crude is hovering near $92 per barrel.

• Gold is trading firm around $2,385 as a safe-haven play.

• European futures are mixed, showing clear signs of hesitation.

Vinod Nair from Geojit Financial says that while domestic macro data remains supportive, global volatility is keeping investors jumpy. “Oil, inflation fears, geopolitical issues — it’s all coming at once,” he remarked.

Eyes on the Fed: No Rate Hike, But No Relief Either

While the U.S. Fed held rates steady as expected, it offered little in terms of comfort. Jerome Powell’s comments were cautious, if not hawkish. The inflation outlook remains stubborn, and the Fed appears unwilling to let its guard down.

This uncertainty adds another layer of caution for Indian markets. Foreign investors are taking a wait-and-watch approach, as are domestic institutions.

Here’s how key global and domestic indicators shaped up on Wednesday:

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Stock Picks: Two Buys for a Cautious Thursday

In a market like this, stock selection matters more than ever. Sumeet Bagadia of Choice Broking has offered two tactical bets for today’s session:

• Adani Ports: Buy at ₹1,215 with a target of ₹1,265 and stop loss at ₹1,180.

• Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL): Buy at ₹5,050 with a target of ₹5,200 and stop loss at ₹4,980.

Ganesh Dongre from LKP Securities is leaning toward defensive names and sees value in IT and pharma for the short term. “Any further drop in broader indices could be a decent buying opportunity,” he notes.

But the key, analysts warn, is to tread carefully.

FII Outflows, Retail Resilience: Contrasting Forces at Play

There’s also a curious divergence happening on the participation front. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers in recent sessions, wary of the twin troubles of global instability and policy fog. But domestic retail investors — still buoyant from recent IPO successes — have stepped in to absorb some of the selling.

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Market data from NSE showed FIIs sold equities worth ₹1,146 crore on Wednesday, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought shares worth ₹1,324 crore.

Retail traders, particularly in small caps, appear undeterred — for now. But if broader weakness continues, sentiment could quickly shift.

What to Watch Today: A Checklist for Traders

As traders gear up for Thursday’s session, here’s a quick rundown of key levels and triggers to monitor:

• Nifty 50 Range: Watch 24,725 support and 24,900 resistance closely.

• Bank Nifty Signal: Sustained move above 56,000 could bring fresh buying.

• Global Cues: Keep tabs on Brent Crude, Nasdaq futures, and VIX index.

• US Data: Jobless claims and housing data could move sentiment overnight.

• Midcap Action: Selective buying in consumer durables and auto could continue.

There’s no shortage of moving parts, and the broader message remains clear: stay light, stay nimble.