Nifty Struggles Below 25,500 as Market Sentiment Sours Ahead of Global Trade Deadlines

Markets wobble on weak global cues, rate anxiety, and looming tariffs; five stock picks still flash green for Thursday trades

It was a restless Wednesday on Dalal Street. The Nifty-50 dipped for the second straight day, closing at 25,453.40 — still stuck below the key psychological mark of 25,500. Investors were visibly jittery as global signals turned cloudy again, ahead of upcoming tariff decisions in the U.S. and earnings season uncertainty worldwide.

With little domestic cheer to hold on to, the Bank Nifty was hit harder, slipping 0.8% to 56,999. Realty stocks buckled. But not all was bleak: metals, pharma and autos managed a modest green.

Key Levels for Thursday: Nifty Below 25,500 Is a Red Flag

As it stands, traders are stuck watching one critical number: 25,500.

If the Nifty-50 keeps slipping under that level, it could mean a gradual fall toward 25,300 — or even 25,225, according to Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan. “Only if we convincingly push past 25,500, a relief rally toward 25,600 to 25,670 becomes possible,” he said in his early morning note.

One sentence here.

On the other hand, Bank Nifty appears to be resting on a fragile floor. Bajaj Broking has pegged its near-term support between 56,000–55,500. Break that, and it could get messy.

The broader indices were also under pressure. Midcaps and small caps ended marginally lower as traders trimmed positions before the U.S. jobs data later this week. Defensive plays like pharma held firm, while metals continued to gain on China stimulus chatter.

Global Jitters Weigh Heavy: All Eyes on Tariffs and Tech Stocks

Internationally, the mood wasn’t much better. Markets from Hong Kong to Frankfurt looked directionless, caught between optimism over earnings and fear of fresh trade restrictions.

Vinod Nair of Geojit Financial put it bluntly: “There’s fatigue. Everyone’s watching how the U.S. handles the tariff issue. At the same time, hopes are pinned on earnings starting next week. So we’re stuck in this push-pull situation.”

Actually, that sums up the tone — fragile optimism tempered by structural worries. Macro data globally isn’t alarming. U.S. jobs growth remains strong. India’s economic indicators are solid. But the problem lies in expectations: they’re sky-high. That makes even small disappointments costly.

Here’s what’s moving international sentiment right now:

• U.S. is set to announce new import duties by the weekend.

• Q1 earnings from S&P 500 companies start next Monday.

• Chinese manufacturing data still below expansion levels.

• ECB officials are dropping mixed signals on rate cuts.

One sentence.

On Wall Street, tech stocks have started showing cracks. After months of rallying, Nvidia and Apple took a step back. That’s spooking emerging markets that rely heavily on foreign capital flows, including India.

Stocks to Watch: Five Picks Analysts Still Like for Thursday

Despite the caution, analysts haven’t given up on stock-specific plays. In fact, some see strong technical breakouts forming, regardless of what Nifty does next.

Let’s break down five stocks experts say are worth a look today:

One sentence paragraph here.

Tata Steel has broken through a resistance zone at ₹165 with solid volumes. “It’s showing classic signs of bullish reversal. Higher highs, higher lows. It’s got steam,” Bagadia said.

Pharma and Energy Stocks Shine as Chart Patterns Signal Strength

Among the lot, Aurobindo Pharma is showing early signs of trend reversal. It recently rebounded from a support zone, forming a “Morning Star” candlestick pattern on the daily chart. Bagadia thinks it’s ripe for a run toward ₹1240.

HBL Engineering is also looking upbeat. The stock is forming higher bottoms and has strong support near ₹560 — a confluence of its 200 MA and 50 EMA. RSI is comfortably positioned.

Inox Green Energy, meanwhile, is attempting a turnaround after a correction. With RSI pointing up and a positive candle forming on the chart, analysts see fresh momentum.

One-liner again.

Energy transition themes continue to attract speculative interest. That helps explain the buying interest in stocks like Inox Green, despite the market’s broader weakness.

Bank Nifty Worries Grow as Interest Rate Bets Cloud the Picture

Banks are under the pump. The Bank Nifty, after a strong June, has begun to show fatigue. It’s now fallen below the 57,000 mark.

A single sentence here.

Traders are watching the 56,000–55,500 band closely. A break below that could open up further downside, especially for private lenders that had rallied sharply in the last two weeks.

What’s spooking investors? A mix of global rate worries and rotation out of financials into defensives like pharma and auto. The RBI’s neutral tone hasn’t helped either.

Only one paragraph here.

Several large banks, including ICICI and HDFC Bank, are trading just above their 50-day EMAs. Any breach could trigger technical selling.

What to Expect Thursday: Rangebound or Reversal?

There’s no denying it — Thursday looks tricky.

Volumes are dropping, volatility is inching up, and cues are muddled. Unless there’s a decisive move above 25,500, experts expect the Nifty to stay choppy.

If it breaks below 25,300, brace for a dip toward 25,225.

But here’s the flip side:

• India’s core economy remains strong.

• Monsoon updates are better than expected.

• Crude oil prices are stable.

• Global earnings season could bring surprises.

In other words, while sentiment is weak, the structure isn’t broken yet.

That’s what’s keeping traders from panicking — for now.