Nifty 50, Sensex Seen Opening Lower as RBI Policy Decision Looms

Gift Nifty Signals Weak Start; Traders Brace for Rate Cut Clarity from RBI

Indian equities are set for a cautious start on Wednesday as traders await the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy announcement. The Sensex and Nifty 50 are likely to open lower, tracking subdued global cues and early signals from Gift Nifty.

At 7:40 a.m. IST, Gift Nifty was trading around 22,442.50—implying a gap-down open for the Nifty 50, nearly 188 points below its previous futures close. That follows a strong relief rally on Tuesday, where the benchmark indices snapped a two-day losing streak with sharp gains.

RBI in Focus: Will Malhotra-Led MPC Deliver a Rate Cut?

The day’s spotlight is firmly on the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee, with Governor Sanjay Malhotra expected to weigh inflation moderation against slowing growth momentum. Analysts are split on whether the central bank will move to cut the repo rate from 6.50% to 6.25%, or prefer to hold and maintain a data-dependent stance.

Markets are hoping for at least a dovish tone, especially with retail inflation easing and the U.S. Federal Reserve seen staying on pause in the near term.

Key Watch:

• Repo Rate Decision: Due around 10:00–10:15 a.m. IST

• RBI’s Commentary on Liquidity & Growth Projections

• Any tweaks to the inflation forecast or stance

Technical Setup: Nifty Still Below Key Averages

Despite Tuesday’s rebound, technical signals remain mixed. The Nifty 50 closed above the 22,500 mark on Tuesday, ending 1.69% higher at 22,535.85, but still trades below its 9-day, 20-day, and 50-day EMAs—a bearish undercurrent that suggests any uptrend may not be sustainable yet.

The Sensex jumped 1,089 points or 1.49% to settle at 74,227.08. However, near-term resistance remains at the 75,000–75,200 zone, while 73,500 acts as a critical support level, according to Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan.

“A breakdown below 73,500 could accelerate profit-taking toward 73,000–72,800,” Chouhan said, advising a level-based trading approach given heightened volatility.

Bank Nifty: Calm Before the RBI Storm

The Bank Nifty surged over 800 points on Tuesday, benefitting from short-covering and bets on dovish policy language. That optimism will now be tested. Any surprises in RBI’s stance, particularly around liquidity management or inflation, could swing banking stocks sharply in either direction.

Support zones: 47,500–47,300
Resistance zones: 48,800–49,000

Global Cues: Soft Sentiment Weighs on Risk Appetite

Overnight U.S. markets ended mostly lower ahead of Wednesday’s U.S. inflation print and Federal Reserve meeting minutes. Asian markets opened weak, with Japan’s Nikkei down nearly 1%, and Hang Seng futures also pointing to a lower open.

Rising geopolitical concerns, including Middle East tensions and U.S.–China trade rhetoric, continue to keep risk appetite in check.

Pre-Market Summary: What to Watch Today

Closing Line: With the RBI policy front and center, investors may tread carefully. All eyes now turn to Governor Malhotra—whether he pulls the trigger on rates or simply sets the stage.