Nifty 50 Holds Ground Amid Choppy Trade; All Eyes on U.S. Inflation, India CPI, and Trump Speech

Analysts hint at 25,600 upside if index crosses key 25,200 mark; Eight stocks in spotlight today

The Indian equity market ended Tuesday more or less where it began—flat, quiet, indecisive. And yet, underneath the calm, analysts insist the near-term structure remains intact, even hopeful. With the Nifty-50 hovering just above the 25,100 level, a push past 25,200 could act like a trigger, setting the stage for another leap toward 25,600 in coming sessions.

Still, it wasn’t all smooth sailing. Bank Nifty saw a dip, realty stocks bled a bit, and many indices stayed muted. But pharma, IT, and energy lent a helping hand. The mood, as it stands now, is like a crowd waiting for the opening bell at a courtroom — all ears for Donald Trump’s upcoming speech and the much-anticipated U.S. inflation report later today.

Nifty’s Stiff Upper Lip: Support and Resistance Levels to Track

The benchmark Nifty-50 closed at 25,104.25, barely changed, giving a sense of pause more than panic.

According to HDFC Securities’ Nagaraj Shetti, the short-term ups and downs are expected in this zone, but the bigger picture still leans positive. He says a sustained move above 25,200 will likely unlock the next pocket of growth, heading up to 25,600. Support levels? That lies comfortably between 25,000 to 24,900.

For Bank Nifty, which closed at 56,629.10, it wasn’t quite as optimistic a finish. It lost 0.37%, partly dragged by weakness in financials. But Bajaj Broking isn’t worried. Their team still sees an upward bias.

One sentence here: Markets aren’t running, but they’re not limping either.

Global Triggers Could Tilt the Balance

With all eyes fixated on global cues, today isn’t just another trading day. It’s a cocktail of anticipation.

Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal pointed out that market participants are fixated on three big triggers:

• Donald Trump’s speech due later tonight

• U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data expected Wednesday

• India’s CPI numbers lined up for Thursday

All three can sway investor mood, either fanning the rally or cooling it down. And since valuations are a bit stretched, even a small disappointment might hurt sentiment.

If Trump’s tone swings extreme or CPI shoots past estimates, brace for volatility.

Sector Snapshot: Gainers and Drainers

Different sectors had different stories to tell on Tuesday. Realty stocks bore the brunt, dragging down the sectoral indices with them. But a few areas stood out with decent gains.

• IT and pharma rebounded well, supported by fresh institutional buying.

• Energy stocks also managed to climb a bit amid global crude cues.

• On the flip side, real estate and auto saw mild to moderate selling pressure.

This type of mixed movement is typical during periods of consolidation. It’s a little like a football team that can’t decide whether to attack or defend.

Eight Stocks to Watch: Buy or Sell Calls for Wednesday

Three analysts — Sumeet Bagadia from Choice Broking, Ganesh Dongre of Anand Rathi, and Shiju Koothupalakkal from Prabhudas Lilladher — handed out their top picks for the day. Whether you’re a long-term investor or a short-term trader, this watchlist is worth a glance.

Here’s a breakdown:

Only buys, no sells this time. That’s rare.

What’s Driving Analyst Confidence?

So why the aggressive “buy” stance despite a flat market?

Let’s break it down in bullet points:

• Fundamentals remain stable: Most of the recommended stocks have reported strong earnings or have favorable technical setups.

• Defensive plays like pharma are getting attention due to global uncertainty.

• Energy and power stocks are gaining on the back of infrastructure optimism post-election.

• Heavyweight picks like Bharat Forge and Cummins India are drawing bets based on cyclical recovery hopes.

It’s not an all-in moment for traders, but a selective approach is clearly underway.

Technical View: Don’t Count Out a Breakout

Technically speaking, it’s a sideways market with a bullish tilt.

Even though Nifty looks undecided, chartists aren’t writing off a breakout just yet. According to some high-frequency indicators, the index is forming a base around the 25,000–25,100 levels.

Momentum oscillators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) are also holding up well. Volatility indicators like India VIX remain tame — another sign that markets are ready but waiting.

One-liner again: We’re in limbo, but it’s a bullish limbo.