NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope is set to observe asteroid 2024 YR4, a space rock with a rising probability of striking Earth in 2032. The latest risk assessment has doubled, though scientists caution against alarmism as they refine their measurements.
Odds of Impact Climb, but Experts Urge Caution
The discovery of asteroid 2024 YR4 late last year initially placed its impact risk at 1 percent. By January, the European Space Agency (ESA) acknowledged that figure before NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) revised the probability to 1.6 percent. Now, the odds stand at 2 percent, a notable increase but still relatively low in cosmic terms.
Experts at both ESA and NASA emphasize that this figure remains subject to change. The true risk depends on key variables such as the asteroid’s size, velocity, and precise orbit. These uncertainties are why James Webb is being brought into the equation.
Why James Webb is Being Deployed
NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope, primarily known for its deep-space observations, will now play a crucial role in tracking an object much closer to home. Unlike ground-based telescopes, Webb can provide high-resolution infrared data, offering valuable insights into 2024 YR4’s composition and trajectory.
- Size Matters: Scientists estimate the asteroid’s width between 40 and 90 meters. That margin makes a world of difference—literally.
- Material Composition: A denser asteroid would cause more damage if it entered Earth’s atmosphere, while a loosely packed one might disintegrate.
- Trajectory Refinement: By precisely measuring its orbit, scientists can determine whether the asteroid is truly a threat or simply a passing visitor.
“It is very important that we improve our size estimate for 2024 YR4,” ESA stated in a report. “The hazard represented by a 40-meter asteroid is very different from that of a 90-meter asteroid.”
Potential Scenarios: From Harmless Flyby to Localized Destruction
If 2024 YR4 remains on course for an Earth impact, the outcome will depend on its final measurements. Scientists categorize possible effects based on asteroid size and speed.
| Estimated Size | Potential Impact Consequences |
|---|---|
| 40 meters | Localized damage, similar to 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor |
| 60 meters | Significant structural damage over a wider area |
| 90 meters | City-wide devastation, comparable to Tunguska event |
The 2013 Chelyabinsk event, which involved a 20-meter meteor, caused shockwaves that injured over 1,500 people. If 2024 YR4 turns out to be larger, the potential consequences could be more severe.
What Happens Next?
Despite the rising odds, asteroid tracking is an evolving science. Additional observations from James Webb and other telescopes will refine the projections. If the risk remains concerning, planetary defense agencies have contingency plans ranging from deflection missions to impact mitigation.
For now, scientists are focused on gathering data rather than predicting doomsday scenarios. “We’ve seen these numbers change before,” a JPL official said. “What matters most is getting more precise measurements.”
As December 2032 approaches, astronomers will continue monitoring 2024 YR4 to determine whether it poses a true threat—or if it will simply pass by, another cosmic visitor lost in the vastness of space.
