GIFT Nifty Surges Over 100 Points as Market Eyes Earnings and Trade Talks

Indian stocks are poised for a cautious climb this Tuesday, powered by strong bank earnings and simmering anticipation over India-US trade talks.

Markets opened the week on a bright note, riding upbeat earnings from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank. GIFT Nifty shot up more than 100 points in early trading, signaling optimism—but with a hint of restraint. Analysts are warning that the rally could be short-lived unless the next wave of earnings delivers—and trade negotiations with the U.S. show real progress before August 1.

Tuesday’s Setup: Range-Bound With an Upside Bias

It’s not euphoria. But it’s not gloom either.

Investors are preparing for a range-bound session today as several key earnings are on tap: Colgate, JSW Infrastructure, Dixon Technologies, and Paytm. After a largely positive Monday, traders are watching whether the momentum will hold.

On the derivatives front, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) trimmed their net short positions in the index futures segment slightly—from ₹1.48 lakh crore on Friday to ₹1.45 lakh crore on Monday. It’s not a dramatic shift, but it’s enough to lift sentiment a little.

Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs), on the other hand, remained net buyers—further adding a layer of support for frontline stocks.

HDFC, ICICI Earnings Light a Spark

The real mood lifter on Monday was the twin earnings blowout from HDFC Bank and ICICI Bank.

HDFC Bank, India’s largest private lender, reported a healthy 33% year-on-year jump in net profit for Q1 FY26, beating expectations on margins and credit growth. ICICI Bank wasn’t far behind. Its numbers impressed across the board, particularly asset quality, which showed clear signs of improvement.

The market took it as a signal that India’s financial sector, often a bellwether for broader economic health, is on solid footing. That confidence pushed Nifty Bank higher by 1.2%, dragging the broader market up with it.

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Paytm and JSW Infra are next in the earnings spotlight. Investors will be watching those closely for signs of whether the rally can broaden or will stay limited to banks and defensives.

A Quick Look: Key Market Metrics to Start the Day

Here’s a snapshot of what traders are working with as of Tuesday morning:

The rupee stayed relatively flat, while crude oil hovered near $83/barrel.

India-US Trade Talks: Deadline Looms, Market Watches

India and the United States are said to be in the final leg of their latest trade negotiations, with an unofficial deadline of August 1 floating in market circles. The talks, which aim to unlock smoother supply chains, reduce tariffs on select goods, and open tech investment channels, are being watched closely by Dalal Street.

Any signs of progress could add fuel to the market.

But investors are wary too. There have been plenty of false starts on this front before. A missed deadline or vague policy announcement could knock sentiment back down.

• India wants easier access for pharma and textiles

• The U.S. is pushing for data localization relaxations and tariff cuts on high-tech imports

• Both sides are walking a tightrope politically, especially with U.S. elections just over a year away

This isn’t just about exports and imports—it’s about narrative. A breakthrough deal would add to the “India Rising” story that many global funds are betting on. No deal, and that story loses a chapter.

FIIs Still Cautious, But Slight Softening Seen

FIIs are still playing defense. But they’re not retreating.

The net short position held by foreign investors in the index futures segment saw a minor dip on Monday, suggesting that the worst of the bearish bets may be behind us—at least for now.

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It’s a wait-and-watch playbook. A few more strong earnings prints and a hint of good news on the trade front might just tip the scales.

But let’s not forget—global uncertainty is still in the air. China’s sluggish data, U.S. rate policy ambiguity, and persistent concerns over Middle East disruptions are keeping FIIs alert.

What to Watch: Key Earnings and Sector Triggers

The spotlight today is on four big names.

1. Colgate-Palmolive – All eyes are on volume growth. Pricing action has steadied, but rural demand recovery remains uneven.

2. JSW Infrastructure – First earnings since its 2023 listing. Investors expect solid growth in cargo handling, but debt levels will be scrutinized.

3. Dixon Technologies – Seen as a proxy for India’s electronics manufacturing ambitions. Margins and capacity utilization will be key.

4. Paytm – Fresh off regulatory heat. The stock is still trying to shake off the RBI blow. Fintech watchers are looking at loan disbursals, merchant acquisition, and burn rate.

Expect volatility across midcaps as these names report. Short-term traders could see sharp moves, especially in Paytm, which remains a high-beta bet.

Traders’ Playbook: Proceed, But Stay Nimble

Most brokerages advise a neutral stance with a selective long bias. The Nifty is expected to hover in the 23,700–23,950 band, unless there’s a major surprise on either the earnings or policy front.

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Volatility is low right now, but that can change fast.

Intra-day action will likely focus on bank stocks, infrastructure names, and FMCG counters. Tech may lag until U.S. earnings give a clearer picture on global demand.