Brazil’s Top Court Puts Bolsonaro Under House Arrest Amid Coup Plot Allegations

Ex-President accused of scheming to kill Lula and a justice; U.S.-Brazil trade hits boiling point as Trump defends ally

Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been placed under house arrest by order of the country’s Supreme Court, intensifying a political crisis that’s been simmering since his 2022 election defeat. The ruling came Monday after prosecutors accused him of spearheading a criminal conspiracy to stay in power — one that allegedly included plotting assassinations of sitting President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and a top judge.

This latest development has sent shockwaves far beyond Brazil. The United States, under President Donald Trump’s second term, has now escalated its rhetoric — and its tariffs — in what’s quickly becoming a political and economic standoff with echoes of Cold War intensity.

Ankle Monitor, Phone Seizures, and a Visitor Ban

Bolsonaro, 70, is no stranger to controversy, but the Supreme Court’s decision on Monday may be the most damning moment of his post-presidency. Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who has become Bolsonaro’s chief judicial adversary, issued the house arrest order following what he called repeated violations of court-imposed restrictions.

Just last month, Bolsonaro had been ordered to wear an electronic ankle monitor and limit his public statements. But prosecutors said he used the social media channels of his three sons — all lawmakers — to amplify political messages that encouraged attacks on Brazil’s judiciary.

One sentence was enough to escalate things: Bolsonaro, the court said, “blatantly supported foreign intervention.”

He’s now confined to his home with strict rules:

• Only lawyers and family can visit.

• His mobile phones were confiscated.

• He’s barred from online activity.

Supporters are fuming, but authorities say the measures are necessary to prevent further destabilization.

Prosecutors Say Plot Went Far Beyond Riots

At the heart of the legal firestorm is a sweeping claim from Brazil’s federal prosecutors: Bolsonaro didn’t just stir public dissent — he allegedly led an organized, multi-layered plot to reverse the election results.

According to filings made public last week, investigators uncovered encrypted messages, meeting transcripts, and voice notes suggesting the former president had knowledge of — and supported — plans to kill Lula and Justice Moraes. Some messages hinted at pressure campaigns targeting senior military officers to back a so-called “constitutional intervention” before Lula’s inauguration in January 2023.

That same month, rioters stormed federal buildings in Brasilia, in scenes eerily similar to the U.S. Capitol attack on January 6, 2021.

One paragraph in the court’s report stood out: “This was not spontaneous chaos. It was stage-managed disorder.”

Trump Intervenes with Trade Tariffs

The plot thickened dramatically over the weekend when U.S. President Donald Trump tied Bolsonaro’s legal woes directly to America’s trade stance. Speaking at a rally in Tampa, Trump called the case “a globalist witch hunt” and accused the Lula administration of “political persecution.”

Then came the bombshell: effective immediately, the U.S. would impose a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods — from iron ore to orange juice.

The White House issued a follow-up, listing the judicial action against Bolsonaro as a “geopolitical factor influencing U.S. trade policy.” U.S. trade analysts say the move could severely impact Brazil’s fragile post-COVID recovery.

Here’s how the top five affected exports stack up:

A Brazilian trade official, speaking anonymously, said, “Trump’s playing hardball to protect his friend. We’re stuck in the crossfire.”

Streets Flooded with Protesters Begging for Clemency

While the courtroom drama unfolds, Brazil’s streets are once again filled with tens of thousands of Bolsonaro supporters. On Sunday, massive demonstrations in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro drew crowds waving Brazilian flags and chanting for the military to “free their captain.”

Many demanded Congress approve a sweeping pardon not just for Bolsonaro but for the hundreds still imprisoned for the January 2023 riots.

There were prayer circles. A few folks set up tents and vowed to stay until Bolsonaro’s “freedom is restored.”

“It feels like 2018 again,” said João Mota, 45, a former army officer who wore a T-shirt bearing the ex-president’s face. “Only now, it’s a spiritual war.”

Police maintained a heavy presence but did not interfere with the protests.

Lula’s Government Faces Pressure — Domestic and Global

The Lula administration has so far avoided publicly gloating about the court’s decision. But officials say the charges are serious enough to merit full due process.

Still, with the Trump administration now turning up the heat on Brazil’s economy, the government may be forced into a difficult corner. Balancing the domestic push for justice with international diplomacy has become a tightrope act.

Finance Minister Fernando Haddad warned Monday that retaliatory tariffs could backfire on American companies operating in Brazil. “This isn’t about ideology,” he said. “It’s about the rule of law.”

There’s also an internal divide. Some Lula allies privately worry that pushing too hard against Bolsonaro could backfire politically — especially if the economic pain grows. One ruling party senator told Folha de S.Paulo, “The streets are not ours right now. They belong to them.”

What Comes Next?

For now, Bolsonaro is holed up inside his home, the ankle bracelet quietly pinging every few minutes. Investigators continue digging. Trump keeps tweeting. And Brazil — already battered by inflation and high unemployment — braces for what could be the most politically explosive trial since the country’s return to democracy.

Nobody’s quite sure where this ends. But everyone agrees: this is uncharted territory.