India’s NIFTY50 index bounced back strongly on Monday, climbing nearly 200 points to close at 24,550 amid robust first-quarter GDP growth and solid auto sales data for August. As traders eye the expiry day on September 2, 2025, questions arise about whether this momentum can hold above key support levels, potentially pushing toward 25,000.
Market Overview and Recent Performance
The NIFTY50 showed resilience after a period of declines, rebounding from the psychological support of 24,500. This uptick came on the back of India’s economy expanding by 8.2 percent in the April-June quarter, beating expectations and boosting investor confidence.
Auto stocks led the charge, with companies like Maruti Suzuki and Eicher Motors posting gains after reporting steady vehicle sales last month. Broader market sentiment improved as global cues turned positive, including a stable U.S. market and easing trade tensions.
Analysts note that this recovery aligns with seasonal trends, where expiry days often see heightened volatility but also opportunities for quick gains. The index has been trading in a narrow range recently, making today’s session critical for setting the tone for the rest of the week.
Technical Analysis Insights
From a technical standpoint, the NIFTY50 formed an open-low same candlestick pattern on Monday, signaling underlying strength in the rally. This formation suggests buyers stepped in early, preventing further downside.
The immediate target appears to be the 20-day simple moving average at 24,735. A decisive close above this level could spark further buying, aiming for 25,000 in the short term.
Support remains firm at 24,500, where the index has found a floor multiple times in recent sessions. Traders should watch for any breach below this, which might trigger a pullback toward 24,350.
| Key Technical Levels for NIFTY50 on September 2 | Value |
|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | 24,735 |
| Strong Resistance | 25,000 |
| Immediate Support | 24,500 |
| Lower Support | 24,350 |
| 20-Day SMA | 24,735 |
Options Data and Expiry Day Dynamics
Options data points to a trading range between 24,500 and 25,000 for today’s expiry. The highest open interest is at the 25,000 call strike, acting as a ceiling, while heavy additions in 24,500 puts indicate solid support.
This setup suggests limited downside risk unless unexpected global events intervene. Expiry days typically amplify movements due to position squaring, and today’s session could see increased volume as traders adjust holdings.
Market experts highlight that put-call ratios are leaning bullish, with more puts being written, reflecting confidence in an upward bias.
Trading Strategies for Today
For those with a bullish view, consider a long call strategy by purchasing options at the 24,600 strike. Profits could kick in if the index crosses 24,673, capitalizing on any sustained momentum.
On the bearish side, a long put at 24,700 might work if the index dips below 24,615, offering protection against potential volatility.
- Always set stop-loss orders to manage risks on expiry day.
- Monitor intraday volume spikes for entry points.
- Combine options with futures for hedged positions.
Remember, these strategies suit active traders and require close monitoring of live market data.
Expert Predictions and Broader Outlook
Experts predict the NIFTY50 could sustain above 24,500, driven by positive domestic data and sectoral strength in banking and IT. One analyst forecasts a rally to 25,000 if global markets remain steady, though volatility from U.S. trade policies might cap gains.
Longer-term forecasts for 2025 suggest the index could reach 26,000 by year-end, fueled by economic reforms and corporate earnings growth. However, risks include inflation pressures and geopolitical tensions.
In comparison to past expiry days, September sessions have often ended higher when preceded by strong GDP reports, adding to the optimistic tone.
Potential Risks and Opportunities Ahead
While the rebound looks promising, traders should brace for swings. Factors like upcoming GST council decisions and international tariffs on Indian exports could influence sentiment.
Opportunities lie in sectors showing resilience, such as autos and consumer goods, which have outperformed amid the recovery.
Overall, the setup favors cautious optimism, with a focus on key levels to guide decisions.
What do you think about the NIFTY50’s chances on this expiry day? Share your views in the comments and pass this article along to fellow traders for more insights.
