Indian equity markets were poised for a shaky Tuesday open as traders wrestled with the fallout from President Donald Trump’s latest tariff bombshell. With a 25% levy now looming over U.S. imports from key trading partners, including South Korea, the ripple effect is rattling nerves from Dalal Street to global desks in Singapore.
Monday’s flat close masked a simmering uncertainty. And this morning, early signs on Gift Nifty hinted that the pain was far from over.
Trump’s Trade Tirade Sends Global Chill Through Asian Markets
Trump’s abrupt tariff declaration caught much of Asia off guard. And India, with its tightly wound global trade links, felt the tremors.
Gift Nifty slipped 44 points below its previous close, hovering near the 25,495 mark — a red flag for traders counting on stability. Not exactly the kind of morning cues they were hoping for after a lackluster Monday.
Markets had barely finished digesting the stalled U.S.-India trade deal when Trump’s fresh salvo dropped. Now, they’re reeling. Traders are looking less at earnings forecasts and more at Trump’s timeline.
One analyst at a Mumbai-based brokerage said bluntly: “This isn’t just about South Korea. This is about everyone — us included — watching their back.”
Nifty 50 Stuck in Tight Range, but That May Not Last Long
The Nifty 50 painted a dull picture on Monday. No drama. No momentum. Just a doji candle — classic sign of indecision.
And that, honestly, makes things trickier.
A doji in a sideways market doesn’t say much. As HDFC Securities’ Nagaraj Shetti noted, it’s more of a head-scratcher than a forecast. “Predictability here is low,” he said.
But some experts see potential in the silence.
Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath from Hedged.in believes the index could break higher. “Momentum indicators are nudging up. The tariff noise is real, but unless we see a deeper correction, dips are buying opportunities,” he said.
Still, there’s resistance ahead.
• Support zone: 25,330 to 25,180
• Resistance ceiling: 25,510 to 25,630
• Breakout watch: 25,700 – 25,800
Sensex May Dance Around 83,500 as Bulls, Bears Lock Horns
Monday’s Sensex close? Basically flat — up just 9.61 points to 83,442.50. But under the surface, a battle is brewing.
Shrikant Chouhan of Kotak Securities isn’t mincing words. He’s calling 83,500 the next big test. Break it, and bulls could push us to 84,000. Fail, and we might slide to 82,800.
It’s level-based trading now. No conviction. No trend.
The narrow candle on the daily chart? It sums up the mood. Everyone’s guessing.
At the moment, no one — not even the big institutions — is rushing in with both feet. One Mumbai-based fund manager put it plainly: “We’ll wait. Too much political smoke.”
Open Interest Signals Tough Road Near 25,500
In the derivatives arena, open interest data is flashing mixed signals.
Call writers have loaded up at 25,500 and 25,600. Meanwhile, puts are stacking up at 25,400 — a sign of short-term floor.
Mandar Bhojane from Choice Broking says it’s all about one number now: 25,500.
“If we don’t close above that, bulls won’t get much to cheer about. A clear breakout is needed,” he said.
There’s cautious optimism — but with plenty of hedging. The chart below shows how OI levels stack up:
| Strike Price | Call OI (Contracts) | Put OI (Contracts) |
|---|---|---|
| 25,400 | 18,000 | 21,300 |
| 25,500 | 24,500 | 17,100 |
| 25,600 | 22,700 | 13,800 |
Short story? Bulls are trying, but bears still have the upper hand — at least for now.
Bank Nifty Inches Lower, But Support Holding… Just About
Bank Nifty didn’t escape Monday’s dullness either. It dipped 82.70 points to 56,949.20 and left behind a doji candle of its own. No surprise — just more consolidation.
Bajaj Broking believes the index is trapped in a channel. Range: 56,000 to 57,500.
Push above that, and there’s daylight toward 58,200. But crack 56,000, and things might get ugly.
One sentence says it all:
The Gravestone Doji spotted by Bhojane suggests a growing grip of sellers.
There’s some comfort in key support levels — 56,000 and 55,500 — which include both the 50-day EMA and a big Fibonacci marker.
Still, traders are walking on eggshells.
PSU Banks Could Buck the Trend, Say Analysts
Interestingly, there’s some buzz around PSU banks.
Some experts see them as the sleeper winners if the broader market tanks. Why? They’ve outperformed lately. And while private lenders waver, names like SBI and Bank of Baroda have shown resilience.
One trader on X (formerly Twitter) quipped: “PSU banks are like cockroaches. They never die — especially in tariff-driven volatility.”
