Indian equity markets are bracing for a jittery start on Tuesday. A heady mix of geopolitical anxiety and shaky global signals is clouding investor sentiment, even as Monday’s gains sparked hopes for a break above the 25,000 mark.
NIFTY50 got within a whisker of that milestone, but the path ahead looks anything but straightforward.
Monday’s Surge Reignites Bulls, But Trouble’s Brewing
The week started with a bang. NIFTY50 jumped nearly 250 points, buoyed by heavyweight sectors like banking, IT, oil, and gas. Stocks like HDFC Bank, Infosys, ICICI Bank, and Reliance were in the driver’s seat.
In total, 32 out of the 50 stocks on the NIFTY50 index were trading green during the early hours. The rest lagged behind.
It was a classic relief rally. After dipping toward the 24,700 mark last week, the index bounced back strong, closing just 50 points shy of the psychological 25,000 level. Traders were back in the game—hopeful, but cautious.
Yet there’s no ignoring what’s happening globally. A deteriorating situation in the Middle East and the latest U.S. directive asking its citizens to leave Tehran have rattled nerves. That unease is now washing onto Dalal Street.
Geopolitics Casts a Long Shadow Over Global Sentiment
Let’s not sugarcoat it—things are getting tense. Former U.S. President Donald Trump’s evacuation orders from Tehran have stirred geopolitical jitters that no trader can ignore.
And markets hate uncertainty.
That tension is hitting global markets too. Asian indices saw a pullback overnight, with GIFT NIFTY futures indicating a red open for Indian markets on Tuesday. European and U.S. markets ended in the red on Monday, weighed by defense-related headlines and rate hike speculation.
The spillover is real. And with options expiry around the corner, the mood might stay edgy.
Options Data Paints a Picture of Wariness
Data from the options market tells its own story.
For NIFTY50:
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The maximum Call Open Interest (OI) lies at 25,300, suggesting heavy resistance.
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The maximum Put OI is placed at 24,800, acting as a cushion—or so we hope.
For SENSEX:
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Maximum Call OI: 82,500
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Maximum Put OI: 81,000
What does this tell us? There’s strong resistance just above Monday’s closing levels, both for NIFTY50 and SENSEX. That could mean one of two things—either we see a breakout surge past these ceilings, or we get a painful pullback.
And here’s a quick glance at the key numbers:
| Index | Current Close | Resistance (Max Call OI) | Support (Max Put OI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| NIFTY50 | ~24,950 | 25,300 | 24,800 |
| SENSEX | ~82,000 | 82,500 | 81,000 |
Technicals Are Holding Up—But Just Barely
Technically speaking, Monday’s close was significant.
NIFTY50 managed to climb above its 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). That’s usually a good sign. It also failed to confirm a bearish reversal, despite flirting with 24,700 last week. So bulls are still in the fight.
But it’s all fragile. Very fragile.
Experts warn that a sustained rally can only be confirmed once the index sees a weekly close above 25,200. Until then, it’s just cautious optimism.
And here’s the twist: the index hasn’t seen such a close in recent months. So traders are keeping their hedges tight, betting more on volatility than direction.
What Should Traders Watch Closely Today?
If you’re a short-term trader or even just a market watcher, today’s setup offers a lot to keep tabs on. Key things to monitor:
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Opening tick of GIFT NIFTY and global indices like Nikkei and FTSE
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Intraday action near 25,000 mark for NIFTY50
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Midday movement in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Reliance
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Reaction in Oil & Gas stocks amid Middle East tensions
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FIIs and DIIs net figures by market close
Those levels around 24,800 and 25,300? Expect a battle zone.
Here’s a quick checklist to help make sense of today’s chaos:
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Watch for volatility in the first 30 minutes.
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If NIFTY sustains above 25,050, momentum could pick up.
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Below 24,800, expect panic-led selling.
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Eyes on IT and banking stocks—they led the rally; they’ll likely lead the fall (or rise) again.
Will the Market Cross 25,000? That Depends…
Let’s be honest—it’s anyone’s guess.
The 25,000 mark is psychological more than technical. Traders and investors are watching it with bated breath. But as the saying goes, “markets climb a wall of worry.”
There’s too much going on:
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Mixed U.S. economic signals
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Rate hike debates in the Fed
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High oil prices
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Iran-Israel tensions
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Options expiry pressure
If there’s enough buying at lower levels today, and if global cues improve just a tad, we could see a strong intraday move above 25,000. But if foreign investors continue selling or if Middle East tensions flare further, expect hesitation, maybe even a reversal.
And remember—volatility loves expiry weeks.
