Diplomatic shifts and a recent phone conversation between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump have fueled optimism in Russia that the long-running conflict in Ukraine may soon tilt decisively in Moscow’s favor.
A Boost in Russian Spirits Amid Prolonged Conflict
As Moscow’s offensive against Ukraine enters its fourth spring, Russians are showing a renewed sense of hope. The war, now stretching over three years and causing devastating casualties, has left many eager for resolution. After Putin’s Monday call with former U.S. President Donald Trump, who described the chat as having an “excellent” tone, ordinary Russians expressed a mixture of anticipation and impatience.
Anastasia, a 40-year-old mother from a suburb of Moscow, summed it up plainly: she wants the conflict settled now — not in some distant future. “I don’t want my children to have to solve this issue. Let’s decide it here and now,” she told AFP. Her words echoed the Kremlin’s stance, which calls for Kyiv’s defeat and significant territorial concessions. Despite her wish for peace, she voiced deep mistrust toward Trump, seeing him as “just a businessman” focused on money rather than real solutions.
This public sentiment reflects an underlying narrative from the Kremlin. Despite Western demands for an immediate ceasefire, Putin remains firm, dismissing calls for peace without Moscow’s conditions being met.
Moscow’s Maximalist Demands and the Status Quo on the Ground
Russia currently controls roughly 20% of Ukraine’s territory, holding a distinct advantage on the battlefield. Yet, the terms for peace that Moscow demands are anything but modest. At recent talks in Istanbul, Russian negotiators insisted Ukraine relinquish control over significant areas in the east and south and demanded guarantees that Kyiv would not join NATO. Moscow also seeks the withdrawal of Western military support to Ukraine and the removal of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky from office.
Putin proposed a vaguely defined “memorandum” during his phone call with Trump, suggesting a framework for peace talks. But many in Russia remain confused about what this entails exactly. Pensioner Sofiya, 72, captured this uncertainty well: “It’s interesting what will happen to us, not only to our families but our country.” She admitted she desired “calm and peace” but was unsure whether these talks would lead there anytime soon.
Meanwhile, Russian state media has not held back on tough rhetoric. State TV presenters warned that if Ukraine does not recognize Russia’s claimed annexations of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions, Moscow might expand its territorial ambitions further.
The Prospect of a Final Offensive Looms Large
Russian military and political analysts are bracing for a renewed push on the battlefield. Konstantin Kalachev, a Russian analyst, called Putin’s phone call with Trump a “tactical victory,” signaling that Moscow intends to press its advantage with a major summer offensive.
“There will be no peace while Russia has not yet used the option of a final offensive,” Kalachev said bluntly.
The Kremlin is clearly signaling that it sees no alternative to continuing the fight until it achieves its objectives. Russian citizens interviewed for AFP reflected this hardened outlook. Marina, a 70-year-old pensioner, openly acknowledged the high cost in lives but insisted, “There is no other way.” She recited the names of key Ukrainian cities she believes should belong to Russia — Odesa, Kharkiv, Nikolayev, Kyiv — underscoring the deep nationalist sentiment in parts of the population.
A War of Attrition With Uncertain Diplomacy
On the diplomatic front, progress remains fragile at best. The talks in Istanbul marked the first direct negotiations in more than three years, yet they yielded little in concrete terms. Zelensky has dismissed Russia’s moves as stalling tactics designed to buy time for more military gains.
Moscow has increased its domestic military censorship, threatening prison terms for critics, underscoring how tightly it controls the narrative about the war at home. Meanwhile, the Russian government’s references to historic long wars — like its 18th-century conflict with Sweden — suggest it is prepared for a protracted conflict if necessary.
The fallout from the Putin-Trump phone call shows a Russia determined to leverage every diplomatic opening for military advantage. Whether this will translate into an imminent resolution or an intensification of hostilities remains uncertain. For now, the people of Russia appear ready to back their leadership, even as the toll of war mounts.
