The Indian stock market looks set for a muted start on April 21, 2025, with GIFT Nifty signaling a slight uptick. While global markets reflect mixed sentiments, analysts are keeping a close watch on earnings from major companies this week.
Market Overview: GIFT Nifty Points to a Calm Opening
GIFT Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, traded higher by 10 points at 23,816, suggesting a subdued yet positive start for Dalal Street on Monday. The minor gain signals a balanced market open, with investors cautious but hopeful ahead of key earnings reports.
After a week marked by optimism, largely driven by tariff exemptions and easing global trade tensions, the domestic market’s trajectory remains cautiously upbeat. Domestic investors will be focused on the earnings season, with marquee names like HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Maruti Suzuki set to announce their quarterly results. Analysts are expecting volatility, but are advising a “buy on dips” strategy until the Nifty index breaches the 23,000 mark.
The Short-Term Technical Outlook
Analysts are bullish about the short-term outlook, with the Nifty likely to extend its recent rally. The technical analysis suggests that if the Nifty surpasses the 24,100 mark, it could pave the way for further gains, potentially reaching the 24,500 mark.
However, on the downside, support levels are seen at 23,650 and 23,300. These levels will be closely watched as a breach below them could signal a correction in the broader market.
Key Support and Resistance Levels for Nifty
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Resistance: 24,100 and 24,500
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Support: 23,650 and 23,300
With the India VIX, a gauge of market volatility, settling at 15.47—down nearly 2.5%—market participants are cautiously optimistic. Lower volatility suggests that investors are willing to take risks, although the market is not completely devoid of fear.
Global Market Sentiment: Mixed Signals
While Indian markets show a positive start, global equities are sending mixed signals. U.S. stock-index futures dipped slightly on Monday morning as investors grappled with the ongoing trade talks between the U.S., Japan, and the European Union. The Dollar Index also fell as President Trump’s recent critiques of the Federal Reserve rattled markets.
Meanwhile, oil prices slipped about 1% after nuclear talks between the U.S. and Iran showed signs of progress. This reduced concerns over potential disruptions to the global supply chain. On the other hand, gold prices surged to a record high, benefiting from both the weakening dollar and ongoing trade war tensions.
FII and DII Action: Foreign Investors Turn Net Sellers
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) turned net sellers on April 17, 2025, offloading shares worth Rs 4,668 crore. This marked a shift in sentiment, with investors pulling back amid global uncertainties. Meanwhile, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were active buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs 2,006 crore.
This contrasting action between foreign and domestic investors suggests a divergent outlook. While FIIs appear cautious, domestic investors are likely driven by the upcoming earnings results and India’s overall economic resilience.
FII and DII Activity Snapshot:
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FII Net Sales: Rs 4,668 crore
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DII Net Purchases: Rs 2,006 crore
Rupee Movement: Strengthens Against the Dollar
The Indian Rupee continued its upward momentum, strengthening for the fourth consecutive session. On April 17, it rose by 10 paise to 85.54 against the US dollar. This strength is attributed to renewed foreign inflows into Indian equities, along with a weakened dollar on the global stage. The rupee’s performance is seen as a positive indicator for market sentiment, providing further support to domestic equities.
Stocks in F&O Ban: Keeping an Eye on Key Names
The stocks currently in the futures and options (F&O) ban include:
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Angel One
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Hindustan Copper
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Manappuram
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Nalco
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IREDA
These stocks have crossed 95% of the market-wide position limit, which means investors cannot take fresh positions in these names until they exit the ban. Traders are advised to avoid these stocks for now, as any position-taking could carry additional risk due to the restrictions imposed.
Global and Domestic Influences: Oil, Gold, and the Dollar
Global commodity prices played a crucial role in shaping the broader market sentiment. Oil prices took a dip following the progress in U.S.-Iran talks, alleviating concerns over Middle Eastern supply disruptions. On the other hand, gold prices surged to an all-time high, driven by investors seeking a safe haven amidst concerns about the trade war and global economic slowdown.
As for the dollar, it tumbled to its lowest point in three years. This dip in the greenback has influenced the broader financial markets, with investors adjusting their portfolios to account for weaker currency dynamics.
Key International Market Movements:
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Oil: Fell by 1% following U.S.-Iran talks.
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Gold: Hits record high, benefiting from low dollar and global uncertainty.
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Dollar: Tumbles to three-year low.
The Takeaway for Today’s Session
As GIFT Nifty points to a steady start, the focus will shift towards the earnings season and global economic developments. With key stocks set to report their quarterly results, investors are advised to keep an eye on the technical levels for further direction. While the mood is relatively optimistic, global volatility and mixed market signals require caution. Analysts remain positive in the short term but advise to stay vigilant for any significant shifts.
