Georgia, also known as Sakartvelo, is a country that has experienced several political changes since its independence from the Soviet Union in 1991. One of the most recent and significant changes was the adoption of a fully proportional representation system for the parliamentary elections, which took place in October 2020. This system replaced the previous mixed system that favored the ruling party and gave it a constitutional majority in the parliament. The new system was expected to create a more diverse and representative parliament, and to open the possibility of forming a coalition government, which has never happened in Georgia’s modern history.
However, the 2020 elections were marred by allegations of fraud, violence, and intimidation by the ruling Georgian Dream party, which claimed to have won 90 seats out of 150, enough to form a single-party government. The opposition parties, which won the remaining 60 seats, refused to recognize the results and boycotted the parliament, demanding new elections. The political crisis has lasted for months, despite the mediation efforts of the European Union and the United States, and has raised concerns about the stability and democracy of the country.
What is a Coalition Government and Why is it Relevant for Georgia?
A coalition government is a form of government in which two or more political parties agree to share power and cooperate on a common agenda, usually after an election that does not produce a clear winner or a working majority for any single party. Coalition governments are common in many countries that use proportional representation systems, such as Germany, Sweden, Israel, and New Zealand. They are seen as a way to ensure broader representation, accountability, and compromise in the political system, and to prevent the dominance or abuse of power by any single party.
In Georgia, a coalition government has never been formed, as the country has been ruled by single-party governments since its independence. The first non-communist government, led by Zviad Gamsakhurdia, was overthrown by a violent coup in 1992. The second government, led by Eduard Shevardnadze, was ousted by the peaceful Rose Revolution in 2003. The third government, led by Mikheil Saakashvili, was defeated by the Georgian Dream party in 2012. The Georgian Dream party, founded and funded by billionaire Bidzina Ivanishvili, has been in power ever since, and has faced accusations of corruption, nepotism, and authoritarianism.
Many opposition parties and civil society groups in Georgia have advocated for a coalition government as a way to end the monopoly of power by the Georgian Dream party, and to create a more pluralistic and democratic political system. They argue that a coalition government would reflect the diversity and preferences of the Georgian society, and would foster a culture of dialogue, cooperation, and compromise among different political forces. They also hope that a coalition government would be more responsive and accountable to the public, and would implement the necessary reforms to improve the economy, the judiciary, the media, and the security of the country.
What are the Challenges and Risks of Forming a Coalition Government in Georgia?
However, forming a coalition government in Georgia is not an easy or straightforward task, as it faces several challenges and risks. One of the main challenges is the lack of trust and cooperation among the opposition parties, which have different ideologies, agendas, and personalities. Some of the opposition parties are pro-Western and pro-reform, while others are pro-Russian and conservative. Some of the opposition parties are led by former allies or rivals of the Georgian Dream party, while others are led by new or emerging leaders. Some of the opposition parties have more experience and resources, while others have less. These differences make it difficult for the opposition parties to agree on a common platform, a common leader, and a common strategy to challenge the ruling party and to form a coalition government.
Another challenge is the resistance and hostility of the Georgian Dream party, which has shown no willingness or intention to share or relinquish power, and which has used various tactics to undermine and discredit the opposition parties. The ruling party has controlled the state institutions, the media, the judiciary, and the security forces, and has used them to harass, intimidate, and prosecute the opposition leaders and activists. The ruling party has also manipulated the electoral system, the vote counting, and the legal procedures, and has rejected any calls for dialogue, negotiation, or compromise. The ruling party has also appealed to the nationalist and populist sentiments of some segments of the Georgian society, and has portrayed the opposition parties as traitors, agents, or enemies of the country.
A third challenge is the external pressure and influence of the regional and global powers, which have different interests and agendas in Georgia and the South Caucasus region. Georgia is strategically located between Russia and Turkey, and is a key partner of the European Union and the United States. Georgia has also been involved in several conflicts and disputes with its neighbors, such as the unresolved issues of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which are occupied by Russia, and the recent war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh. These factors make Georgia a vulnerable and volatile country, and a potential target or pawn of the geopolitical games and interests of the major powers. Therefore, forming a coalition government in Georgia would require a careful and balanced approach to the foreign policy and security issues, and a strong and consistent support from the international community.
What are the Prospects and Scenarios for a Coalition Government in Georgia?
Despite the challenges and risks, there are still some prospects and scenarios for a coalition government in Georgia, depending on the outcome of the ongoing political crisis and the possible resolution of the electoral dispute. One scenario is that the opposition parties manage to overcome their differences and unite their forces, and that the ruling party agrees to hold new elections or to accept a power-sharing arrangement, under the pressure or mediation of the international community. This scenario would create the opportunity for a coalition government to be formed, either before or after the new elections, based on a common platform and a common leader, and with the participation and representation of the majority of the political parties and the society.
Another scenario is that the opposition parties fail to unite and cooperate, and that the ruling party maintains its grip on power and its control over the parliament, despite the boycott and the protests of the opposition parties and the civil society. This scenario would create the risk of a prolonged and deepened political crisis, and a further deterioration of the democracy and stability of the country. This scenario would also create the need for a coalition government to be formed, either as a result of a political breakthrough or a political breakdown, based on a minimum consensus and a transitional leader, and with the involvement and assistance of the international community.
A third scenario is that the opposition parties and the ruling party reach a partial and temporary agreement, and that the parliament resumes its work and its functions, with the participation of some of the opposition parties and the absence of others. This scenario would create the possibility of a coalition government to be formed, either as a formal or an informal arrangement, based on a limited agenda and a rotating leader, and with the monitoring and evaluation of the international community.
Coalition rule is a relevant and realistic option for Georgia, as the country faces a critical and complex political situation, and as the electoral system and the society demand a more diverse and representative government. However, coalition rule is also a challenging and risky option for Georgia, as the country lacks the experience and the culture of coalition governance, and as the political parties and the external actors have different interests and agendas. Therefore, coalition rule requires a high level of trust, cooperation, and compromise among the political parties, and a strong and consistent support from the international community, to ensure that it serves as a political panacea, rather than a political poison, for Georgia.
