Traders watching the movements of NEXT plc (NXT.L) might be interested in how the quality ratios are stacking up for the shares.  Robert Novy-Marx, a professor at the university of Rochester, discovered that gross profitability has as much power predicting stock returns as traditional value metrics. He found that while other quality measures had some predictive power, especially on small caps and in conjunction with value measures, gross profitability generates significant excess returns as a stand alone strategy, especially on large cap stocks.The Gross profitability for NEXT plc (NXT.L) is 0.513586.

Stock market investing can indeed tug on an individual’s emotional strings. When the market becomes tumultuous, investors may be tempted to act impulsively, or they may freeze and not act at all. Being prepared for various scenarios may help the investor better deal with the market when the time comes. Staying disciplined with portfolio rebalancing and asset allocation may be a big help for the individual investor. Investors who constantly try to outguess the market and chase winners may eventually find themselves swimming upstream. Staying the course and keeping a logical perspective may assist the investor with making the tricky portfolio decisions when necessary.  

Key Stats

NEXT plc (NXT.L) based out of United Kingdom and resides in the Consumer Discretionary sector, has a market cap of 6840430.249 after recently touching 44.78 on a recent bid. NEXT plc (NXT.L) sees an average of trading volume of 44880.26751. NEXT plc (NXT.L) competes in the Multiline Retail industry.

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FCF Yield, PI & FScore
Free Cash Flow Yield (FCF Yield) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow. The FCF Growth of NEXT plc (NXT.L) is 0.057498. Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure. This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends. Looking out to the 5 year FCF yield, this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow over a longer period of time. The FCF five year yield for NEXT plc (NXT.L) stands at 0.072362. Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

The Price Index is a ratio that indicates the return of a share price over a past period. The price index of NEXT plc (NXT.L) for last month was 0.939375 while the 3m is at 0.835937. This is calculated by taking the current share price and dividing by the share price at the specifiied time frame mentioned. If the ratio is greater than 1, then that means there has been an increase in price over that timeframe. If the ratio is less than 1, then we can determine that there has been a decrease in price. Similarly, investors look up the share price over 12 month periods. The Price Index 12m for NEXT plc (NXT.L) is 0.971046. The Price Index 5Y stands at 0.944128. 

The Piotroski F-Score is a scoring system between 1-9 that determines a firm’s financial strength.  The score helps determine if a company’s stock is valuable or not.  The Piotroski F-Score of NEXT plc (NXT.L) is 5.  A score of nine indicates a high value stock, while a score of one indicates a low value stock.  The score is calculated by the return on assets (ROA), Cash flow return on assets (CFROA), change in return of assets, and quality of earnings.  It is also calculated by a change in gearing or leverage, liquidity, and change in shares in issue.  The score is also determined by change in gross margin and change in asset turnover.

Successful traders are typically skilled at building highly disciplined trading systems. These systems that they create may range from very simple to highly complex. Traders may need to fine tune the system to suit their specific needs and goals. Finding a little edge can lead to big rewards when dealing with the stock market. It is important to remember that a trading system that works for one person may not work for another. Novice traders may realize how hard it is to actually bring home healthy returns. Acquiring the necessary knowledge may take a long time, but putting in the effort and doing all the homework may help give the trader an advantage over the long run. Many successful stock market traders will be the first ones to admit that finding success is not going to happen overnight. Staying disciplined and being able to learn from mistakes can also go a long way when dealing with the ever-changing equity market landscape.

EBITDA/EV
This multiple is similar to Earnings Yield, but here we use Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization (EBITDA) as Nominator). By doing this, we can compare companies with a different capital structure and capital expenditures. This way it gives a much better idea of the value of a company compared to the popular P/E ratio. As O’Shaughnessy explaines:

” Stocks that have very high debt levels often have low PE ratios, but this does not necessarily mean that they are cheap in relation to other securities. Stocks that are highly leveraged tend to have far more volatile PE ratios than those that are not. A stock’s PE ratio is greatly affected by debt levels and tax rates, whereas EBITDA/EV is not. To compare valuations on a level playing field, you need to account for how a company is financing itself and then compare how relatively cheap or expensive it is after accounting for all balance sheet items.” – James P. O’Shaugnessy in What works on Wall Street

You can think of it as the taking all the revenue and subtracting the costs that solely go into running the business. The downside of EBITDA is that it can be abused by companies declaring as “one-off” costs things that should really be considered normal costs. We use the EBITDA of the last 12 months.

As denominator it uses Enterprise Value. The formula is as follows:

EBITDA/EV = EBITDA/Enterprise Value

EBITDA/EV has been identified in many academic studies as one of the most predictive valuation factors. NEXT plc (NXT.L) has a EBITA/EV of 8.274069.

In the 4th edition of ‘What works on Wall Street’, O’Shaughnessy reported that in his backtests, EBITDA/EV earned the best absolute return over the testing period (1963-2009), unseating all other ratios examined, and doing this with a relatively low volatility.

Gray & Vogel found the EBITDA/EV to be the best performing metric, outperforming investor favorites such as Price-to-Earnings, Free Cashflow to EV and Book-to-Market in the period 1971-2010. They also found in contrast to prior empirical work, that long-term ratios add little investment value over standard one-year valuation metrics. The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies.  The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC.  The ERP5 of NEXT plc (NXT.L) is 1913.  The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is believed to be. 

The stock market can be influenced by many different factors such as news, politics, earnings reports, or even company rumors. Often times the market may not react as expected to certain events. This may cause the investor to become frustrated at times. Sometimes certain market moves may seem to go against prevailing logic. This is why it can be extremely hard to predict near-term moves with any certainty. Taking a big picture look at the financial markets may help offer a clearer picture of how all the different aspects contribute to market movements. Figuring out why a certain move happened may help shed some light when the same scenario arises again in the future.  

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